| Author (Person) | Ajelli, Marco, Barone, Antonio, Bodina, Annalisa, Cereda, Danilo, Crottogini, Lucia, Diurno, Giulio, Gramegna, Maria, Guzzetta, Giorgio, Marziano, Valentina, Melegaro, Alessia, Merler, Stefano, Poletti, Piero, Tirani, Marcello, Trentini, Filippo |
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| Publisher | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) |
| Series Title | Eurosurveillance |
| Series Details | Volume 25, Number 12 |
| Publication Date | March 2020 |
| Content Type | Journal Article |
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Abstract: Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required. |
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| Source Link | Link to Main Source https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293 |
| Subject Categories | Health |
| Subject Tags | Diseases, Public Health |
| Keywords | COVID-19 (Coronavirus) |
| Countries / Regions | Italy |
