Added value of a common EU response to the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic

Abstract:

In addition to the tragic loss of human lives, the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic will have severe consequences for the European economy. Common action at EU level and coordinated long-term strategic action at international level is more necessary than ever before. In particular, in addition to the measures taken after the 2008 economic and financial crisis, a resolute move towards greater common policy action and a deepening of the single market, more strategic autonomy, increased common investment, and a reasonable deepening of risk-sharing within the economic and monetary union (EMU), could help to achieve a rapid, broad based and sustainable recovery.

Our simulations, which use growth models based on long-term scenarios to 2035, indicate that the cost of complacency could be substantial. In a pessimistic worst-case scenario, where the policy response is fragmented and where no risk-sharing takes place, potential added value growth would be reduced by 0.8 % in 2035. For 2020 to 2035, this would represent a cumulated €2.9 trillion of added value losses for the EU as a whole compared to the initial baseline. In a more optimistic scenario, we assume a decisive move towards more sustained common action at EU level. As a result, potential added value growth is initially less impacted and the common action boosts long-term growth prospects to levels surpassing the estimates from the baseline scenario. For 2020 to 2035, such a scenario would represent a cumulated gain of €0.5 trillion of added value for the EU as a whole compared to the initial baseline.