Brexit policy panel

The UK in a Changing Europe formed in the summer of 2018 a new Brexit Policy Panel (BPP). The BPP was a cross-disciplinary group of over 100 leading social scientists created to provide ongoing analysis of where the UK and the EU had got to in the Brexit process, and to forecast developments.

Members of the BPP completed a monthly survey addressing three key areas of uncertainty around Brexit:

+ if - and when - the UK would leave the EU
+ how Brexit would affect British politics
+ what the UK's relationship with the EU was likely to look like in the future.

The first monthly survey published in August 2018 showed significant uncertainty about Brexit. However, some key themes emerge:

+ the panel put the prospect of no deal at around 50%
+ the UK was highly likely to leave on 29 March 2019
+ a second referendum was seen as highly unlikely
+ the October 2018 EU Council deadline was unlikely to be met
+ the transition period would need to be extended beyond December 2020
+ there were significant splits over the final deal. A plurality of participants felt a Canada style free trade deal was the most likely outcome of the Brexit process, involving a border on the island of Ireland.

Further information

The UK in a Changing Europe promotes rigorous, high-quality and independent research into the complex and ever changing relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU).

It provides an authoritative, non-partisan and impartial reference point for those looking for information, insights and analysis about UK-EU relations that stands aside from the politics surrounding the debate.

The Initiative’s work is tailored to be easily accessible to policy makers, businesses, journalists, civil society organisations, educational institutions and the general public who are interested in the UK’s relationship with the EU.

It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), and based at King’s College London.

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

Carnegie Europe: Strategic Europe, 24.07.18: Four Brexit Scenarios (et al) http://www.europeansources.info/record/four-brexit-scenarios/

UK in a Changing Europe, 18.09.18: Brexit policy panel results: August 2018 http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-policy-panel-results-august-2018/

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