A step backwards in Serbia

Abstract:

The candidate with the best chances to win the first round of the Serbian presidential election on June 13 is the 52-year old construction engineer, Tomislav Nikoli , a member of the ultra-nationalist populist Serbian Radical Part (SRS).

Despite the expected devastating domestic and international consequences of a Nikoli victory, Serbia's so-called democratic camp couldn't unite around a single candidate of its own. To the contrary: full-blown in-fighting among the democratic parties has left many voters gravely disillusioned and has strengthened the Radicals' hand.

In the run-up to the vote, the West should avoid provoking a backlash among Serbia's voters by showing excessive sympathy for the EU's and the U.S.'s favoured candidate Bojan Tadić, a forty-six-year old psychologist and head of the Democratic Party (DS). Rather, in light of Serbia's key role in the region, the West must try to stabilise the country through a strategic combination of carrots and sticks.