Global Changes and Norwegian Foreign and Development Policy 2010–2020

Abstract:

This report sheds light on some global trends that are likely to have an impact on Norwegian foreign- and development policy in the coming decade. Overall, we see a continuing trend away from bilateral diplomacy towards networking of diplomats and non-diplomats, and a trend away from international anarchy towards international hierarchy. Decision-making power, alliances, and innovation in governance will increasingly take place within transnational networks organized around specific issue-areas. Such networks are often tied in with states or formal organizations, such as the UN or the World Bank, but any one actor does not dominate them. While we still expect that liberal principles will dominate, the free operation of markets is no longer seen as the standard against which other forms of governing must be assessed. Moreover, emerging powers’ governing principles are likely to shape debates about appropriate forms of global governance. We expect, moreover, to see widespread “hybridization” in the form of the merging of issue-areas (i.e. “security-development nexus”) and new types of actors (i.e. public-private partnerships).