Impacts of Alternative Post-Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture: Sector Analyses using the FAPRI-UK Model

Further information
Analysis undertaken by economists within the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI, Professor John Davis, Dr Siyi Feng and Dr. Myles Patton) in conjunction with the University of Missouri (Dr. Julian Binfield) quantified the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of alternative trade agreements following Brexit using the widely-respected FAPRI-UK economic modelling system. The AFBI researchers captured the impacts on UK agricultural commodity markets as a result of three possible post-Brexit changes in trade flows with the EU and the rest of the world:

+ Bespoke Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU
+ World Trade Organisation (WTO) default Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs
+ Unilateral Trade Liberalisation.

Post-Brexit trade arrangements could take many different forms. The scenarios presented were designed to be illustrative of the impacts of the range of possible trade arrangements, rather than speculating on the final outcome of the Brexit trade negotiations. The results indicated the broad directions of change in UK agricultural commodity sectors within each trade scenario.

The [UK] Agri-Food & Biosciences Institute (AFBI) released in August 2017 a comprehensive year-long economic analysis highlighting the price and production impacts of alternative Post-Brexit Trade Agreements on UK agriculture.

The report said that Brexit would have important implications on UK agricultural commodity markets due to potentially significant changes to trade flows.

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

AFBI: Press Release, 16.08.17: AFBI releases report on Post-Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture https://www.afbini.gov.uk/news/afbi-releases-report-post-brexit-trade-agreements-uk-agriculture

EurActiv, 21.08.17: How the post-Brexit trade deal will affect British farmers http://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/how-the-post-brexit-trade-deal-will-affect-british-farmers/

NFU: News, 18.08.17: Latest modelling shows impacts of different Brexit deals https://www.nfuonline.com/news/latest-news/nfu-underlines-call-for-free-and-frictionless-trade/

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