Black swans or creeping normalcy? – An attempt to a holistic crisis analysis

Abstract:

In this article we address the daunting challenge of current economic recovery by contributing to the better understanding of its secular feature. In so doing we devote special attention to the secular decline in innovativeness by raising three interlinked and interrelated explanatory phenomena: (i) lowering productivity in the new techno-economic paradigm; (ii) the effect of the different degree of employment protection; and (iii) the issue of pent up disruptive innovations.

We argue that these phenomena are not black swans; however, they have been developing in commonly unnoticed increments by manifesting the so-called ‘creeping normalcy’ and being endogenous to the market system. The paper draws lessons to be learned for the Central and Eastern European Member States as well.