| Author (Person) | Wyman, Oliver |
|---|---|
| Publisher | TheCityUK |
| Publication Date | October 2016 |
| Content Type | Report |
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This report published in October 2016 by global management consultancy, Oliver Wyman, analyses Brexit’s potential impact on the UK-based financial services sector. It estimates that a Brexit where the UK is outside the European Economic Area but delivers passporting and equivalence – allowing access to the Single Market on terms similar to those that UK-based firms currently have – will cause only a modest reduction in UK-based activity. In this scenario, revenues are predicted to decline by up to £2BN (2% of total wholesale and international business), 4,000 jobs would be at risk, and tax revenues would fall by less than £0.5BN per annum. Under conditions where the UK moves to a third country arrangement with the EU, without any regulatory equivalence and its relationship with the EU is defined by terms set out under the World Trade Organization, up to 50% of EU-related activity (£20BN in revenue) and an estimated 35,000 jobs could be at risk, along with £5BN of tax revenues per annum. When taking into consideration the knock-on impact to the whole financial services ecosyststem – the possibility of shifting of entire business units, or the closure of lines of business due to increased costs it could almost double the effect of Brexit. |
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| Source Link | Link to Main Source http://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/global/en/2016/oct/Brexit_POV.PDF |
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| Subject Categories | Business and Industry |
| Countries / Regions | United Kingdom |
