Like leaves in the wind? Economic conditions and government survival in Italy (1946–2015)

Abstract:

In Italy the coincidence between the constitutionally mandated cycle of regular elections and the government mandate has never been realised: the standard has been represented by frequent government terminations during the inter-electoral period. Explanations for this instability mainly focus on cabinet and systemic attributes.

This paper shifts the attention to the relationship between government stability and critical events such as economic crises. Results show that increasing job insecurity contributes to undermine government stability. This effect is stronger for governments formed after 1994, when a series of reforms have reshaped the political system, allowing voters to more easily reward or punish the incumbents for their management of the economy.