The partisan consequences of turnout revisited

Abstract:

The relationship between turnout and electoral results has been well studied but with contradictory findings. Thus far, an academic consensus on the relationship between turnout and electoral results does not exist, and the conditions under which this relationship can be observed are still unknown. This article aims to fill a gap in the literature by arguing for the need to focus on three elements: class voting, the mechanisms behind whether the correlation is observed over the short or long term, and the use of more rigorous model specifications. By looking at the cases of Spain and Portugal, we find a correlation in the short and long term for Spain but not for Portugal, and this is due to the prominence of class voting in the former.