From sanctions to summits: Belarus after the Ukraine crisis

With the situation in the East drastically changed by the Ukraine crisis, the EU should move from sanctions to re-engagement with neighbouring Belarus, according to this policy memo published in May 2015.

The authors argue that over the last four years, the EU’s sanctions-based policy towards Belarus has been ineffective and even counterproductive. They believe Minsk is nervous about Russian aggression and has made cautious attempts to cultivate its own national identity, whilst Russia’s economic problems have diminished the Kremlin’s appeal for Belarus’s leadership. With the context dramatically reframed by the Ukraine crisis, the EU has now an opportunity to shift to a more constructive approach.

The authors Andrew Wilson and Yaroslau Kryvoi conclude that Belarus seems to be interested in exploring some kind of opening to the West, however, the EU needs to change its approach:

+ The EU needs to understand that the Belarusian leadership has no interest in far-reaching political reform.
+ The EU needs to decide whether or not to take up an implicit offer to act as a partner in strengthening the Belarusian state.
+ The EU needs to find a form of engagement that can reinforce Belarus’s independence, increase its openness to Western influence and promote a more independent civil society.

ESO: Key Source: Eurasian Economic Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/eurasian-economic-union/

ESO: Background information: The financial crisis and the changes in the Belarusian government http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-financial-crisis-and-the-changes-in-the-belarusian-government/

ESO: Background information: Belarus may start talks on visa-free EU travel http://www.europeansources.info/record/belarus-may-start-talks-on-visa-free-eu-travel/

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