Success? The Russia/Ukraine/EU gas agreement

On 29-30 October 2014 the last round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union was carried out in Brussels, which ended with the conclusion of an interim agreement (the so-called winter package) on the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute.

The main provisions of the document were based on a compromise proposal tabled in September by the EU Commissioner Energy Günther Oettinger, which allows each party to treat the agreement as a negotiating success: Ukraine, because of the prospect of the resumption of Russian gas supplies, and avoiding major concessions to Gazprom; the EU, because the security of supplies of Russian gas to European customers was increased, a success to round off this term of the European Commission; and Russia, as it will recover part of Ukraine’s debt, and has ensured the safer transit of its gas to the EU. Russia has decided to sign the agreement because it sees the terms as closest to its own negotiating position, and also shows good will toward the EU, in the hope of improving the image of Gazprom. The fundamental difference between Russia and Ukraine in their approaches to formulating the rules for gas cooperation means that a lasting, systemic solution to the dispute between them in the coming months is unrealistic. The Ukrainian side is counting on a favourable decision from the arbitration in Stockholm.