The Two Ukraines

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich’s government was widely seen as 'pro-Russian' and was much less democratic than its predecessor. Yet it was engaged in negotiations with the European Union on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) accord, whose provisions go far beyond the elimination of tariffs. Russia was pressing Ukraine to join the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union (CU) instead, but Ukraine seemed set on DCFTA. Moreover, Ukrainian officials then lamented the 2010 Kharkiv Accord with Russia, which ended up giving Ukraine higher gas prices than those paid by EU members. Based on Russia’s demonstrated determination to retain its predominance in its 'sphere of privileged interest,' its evident opposition to the DCFTA, and its efforts to persuade Ukraine to choose the CU instead, one should not overlook the possibility of a crisis in Ukrainian-Russian relations this year.