Regime change in Russia

When EU leaders arrived in Yekaterinburg for the June 2013 summit with their Russian counterparts, they were arriving in a new Russia. Europeans need to think again about how they deal with the changes that the country has undergone, and even how to deal with a post-Putin Russia.

Although Vladimir Putin was back in the Kremlin, the era of “managed democracy” - where the Kremlin manipulated politics with the consent of the ruled, backed by high oil prices - was over. Instead, Putin’s third presidency was fragile, relying more upon coercion than co-option, and beset by economic problems.

A new ECFR memo - “Regime change in Russia” by Kadri Liik - explains how the nature of Putin’s power had changed, and laid out what this meant for Europe as it worked out how to deal with the new Russia.

The most effective EU policies towards Russia would require more homework on energy security (diversifying supply routes, creating a common energy market) and anti-corruption initiatives. This would make EU members less vulnerable to Moscow divide-and-rule tactics.

As Russia shared many of the West’s concerns about disorder in the Middle East, it may respond favourably to the offer of contributing to a realistic settlement over Syria and Iran. The EU should not bargain domestic carte blanche on issues like human rights and democracy in exchange for this cooperation.

As ever, Putin is ready to exploit European indecision and weakness, for instance on issues like the granting of visa-free travel. Europe must be strong, for instance by combining resources to ensure representation at political court cases such as the trial of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.