Taiwan in Ma’s second term: international implications

President Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election to the Taiwan presidency this January offers new prospects but also challenges for the country. His tenure will be defined by a pragmatic foreign policy which endeavours both to quench Taiwan’s thirst for international space and rebalance its relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Ma will combine diplomacy in the rest of the world with commerce in the PRC. The biggest challenge of his second
term will be fending off increased pressure from the mainland to unite, whilst defending the wishes of Taiwan’s 23 million people. Over the next four years, economic growth and diversification of trade partners will be essential. At the same time, greater economic
interdependence with the PRC will be sought to enhance political relations.

Fundamentally, President Ma’s re-election points towards a further rapprochement in cross-strait ties building on his China policy of the ‘three No’s’—no unification, no independence and no use of force. President Ma’s success in achieving a ‘diplomatic truce’ with Beijing has so far been notable. Ma emphasises his victory as a sign of the Taiwanese people’s endorsement of his China policy.

But amidst declining popularity at home, President Ma will have to navigate an unsteady course between domestic interests and those of the mainland. The ultimate success of his China policy will rest on the new regime in Beijing.