The future of the Arctic: cauldron of conflict or zone of peace?

The forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic, tight-ening the links between this seemingly remote region and the world at large with regard to matters of environmental protection, sustainable development, and the pursuit of peace. This has triggered an explosion of both popular and scholarly interest in the far north.

Much of the resultant literature is marked by persistent expectations that the Arctic will become the scene of escalating jurisdictional conflicts, resource wars, a new great game and even armed clashes during the coming years. Yet these expectations are greatly exaggerated; there is much to be said for the proposition that armed conflict is less likely to occur in the Arctic than in most other parts of the world anytime soon. What is needed is an alternative paradigm to provide a basis for understanding the significance of the profound changes now eroding the old order in the Arctic and establishing a basis for framing innovative governance arrangements capable of ensuring the future of the Arctic as a zone of peace.