Kosovo’s Fragile Transition

Kosovo has taken its first steps in state building, but the international community has failed to meet its commitments and prospects for a de facto partition of the state are growing.

Kosovo’s Fragile Transition,* the latest International Crisis Group report, says the international community has not found its footing since independence was declared on 17 February. Independence was supposed to be “supervised”, based on the plan drafted by the UN Secretary-General’s special representative, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. But supporters have not kept their pledges because of Serbian and Russian opposition, insufficient political will and weak coordination.

“Major violence has been avoided but the calm is deceptive”, says Alexander Anderson, Crisis Group’s Kosovo Project Director. “Divisions between Albanian and Serb areas have widened. If de facto partition continues, Kosovo’s Serbs south of the Ibar River will be at risk, pressure will mount to redraw borders on ethnic lines throughout the states of the former Yugoslavia, and EU membership prospects for these countries will fade”.

The International Civilian Office (ICO) lacks the supremacy envisioned for it. The European Union agreed in February to set up its biggest security and defence policy operation to date (EULEX), but only a quarter of the expected 2,000 staff are on the ground. The UN still partially functions as an interim administration, and is negotiating special arrangements for Kosovo Serbs with Belgrade. How the UN will pull out and EULEX deploy in Kosovo Serb areas remains uncertain.

Serbia’s new government is eager to move toward EU membership, but it does not want an EU presence in Kosovo. It is pressing the UN General Assembly for an International Court of Justice opinion on the legality of Kosovo’s independence. The EU should use candidacy talks with Belgrade to ensure deployment of its mission throughout Kosovo. EULEX must deploy by 1 December and all sides must agree on transitional arrangements, to be reviewed by early 2010.

The repercussions on Kosovo from the recent events in Georgia remain to be seen. Russia has cited the Balkans case as part of its justification for unilaterally recognising the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but it is not yet clear whether Moscow will use its blocking capacities in the UN and encourage territorial fragmentation in the EU’s backyard, or show its cooperative side, after displaying its new and troubling self-confidence.

“Kosovo is proving to be a difficult, decisive test for EU security and defence policy, and the political will mustered before February is dissipating”, warns Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. “At a time when the EU is engaged in tough talks with Russia about Georgia, it would be dangerous to show a lack of resolve so close to home”.

ESO: Background information: Conflict history: Georgia http://www.europeansources.info/record/website-georgia-2/

ICG: Europe: Caucasus: Georgia https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/georgia

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