Major Determinants of Imports in Turkey

Abstract: Imports are increasing at an alarming rate in Turkey. The reasons for this increase are analyzed in this essay. Findings show that 85-90 percent of Turkish imports are capital goods, intermediate goods, and raw materials, and only 10-15 percent are consumer goods (including petroleum). Imports in Turkey correlate positively with economic growth and growth in fixed capital investments. This study tests the effects of factors such as economic growth, fixed capital investments, the Customs Union with the European Union, real effective exchange rates, and exports and their lagged correlations with imports. The regression results show that the Customs Union Agreement has had no impact on imports in Turkey.