Treaty could get ‘OK’ in October

Member states could agree the text of a new treaty as early as October if Germany can resolve the main outstanding disagreements at the EU summit on 21-22 June, according to diplomats.

EU diplomats say that an intergovernmental conference (IGC) to work out the fine detail of a new treaty following a successful summit could complete its work in around eight weeks, meaning that a new text could be endorsed in October.

They say that the summit could agree "80% of a new treaty" as the German presidency and the secretariat of the Council of Ministers have already been working on drafts of what the new treaty could look like.

According to diplomatic sources, Berlin wants to split the constitutional treaty into two treaties, replacing the current European Union (EU) treaty and the European Community (EC) treaty. The EU treaty part would contain the institutional innovations of the constitution, such as the creation of a post of permanent Council president and the Union foreign minister (under a different name). The other part, replacing the EC treaty, would contain the detailed policy provisions.

The UK and the Netherlands, which are insisting on reverting to the traditional amending treaty procedure, used for the Nice and Amsterdam treaties, for instance, have said that they can accept splitting the constitution into two texts. But they are insisting that the institutional changes remain in the EU treaty part, to emphasise that the current pillar structure, with forms of decision-making for justice and home affairs and foreign policy different from those for the internal market, for instance, is retained. They are concerned that incorporating foreign policy and justice and home affairs into traditional policymaking procedures, as the constitution established, will suggest that the EU is taking away powers from national governments. This could increase pressure for a referendum on a new treaty which all parties wish to avoid.

The UK, for example, is insisting that the detailed rules on how foreign policy decisions are taken remain in the EU Treaty part. They fear that otherwise member state influence over foreign policy could be eroded in the future.

The UK is also resisting attempts by the German presidency to give the Union a legal personality so that it can be more effective in international treaty negotiations. Berlin has suggested deleting the current explicit reference to a single legal personality for the EU in the constitution but replacing references to "Community" with "Union" to achieve the same result.

The German presidency will present a report on discussions on 14 June ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers three days later and a meeting of EU sherpas on 19 June, two days before the summit. After that the presidency will present an outline of what a possible treaty might look like. It is expected to include a list of items to be discussed in the following IGC as well as items which can already be dropped from the new text. Parts to be dropped include references to symbols like the EU flag and the ‘Ode to Joy’ anthem. The presidency wants to keep off the IGC’s agenda the institutional package, including the double majority voting system in the Council of Ministers agreed as part of the constitution, despite Polish and Czech calls for reopening the debate on voting weights.

The presidency document, which may not be finalised until the summit, could be as short as five or six pages. But Chancellor Angela Merkel will have in reserve a longer document if countries like the UK and the Netherlands complain that the shorter text does not provide sufficient guarantees that they will be able to accept what comes out of the IGC. In any event, a draft treaty is expected to be ready in time for the first IGC meeting to be held in the second half of July.

A treaty in the making - key dates

• 14 June: German presidency report on state of discussions

• 17 June: EU foreign ministers conclave (dinner discussion)

• 18 June: EU foreign ministers (GAERC)

• 19 June: Sherpas meeting

• 21-22 June: EU summit

• 1 July: Portugal takes over EU presidency

• 10 July: European Commission presents position for Intergovernmental conference (IGC)

• July: European Parliament position for IGC

• Second half of July: First IGC meeting

• September-October: IGC

• 10 October: Summit to agree new treaty

Member states could agree the text of a new treaty as early as October if Germany can resolve the main outstanding disagreements at the EU summit on 21-22 June, according to diplomats.