Turkey struggles to find its future

Just three months after it took office, Turkey’s new government has attracted the wrath of liberal commentators for its uncertain start.

The absence of rapid action on issues such as freedom of speech or on revitalising Turkey’s EU bid are seen as litmus tests of whether the Justice and Development (AK) government is going to drive through fundamental political change in Turkey or not.

Atila Eralp, a professor at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, is concerned that the government has been exhausted by the election campaign. "We’ve got through September and most of October without the government doing anything much," says Eralp.

Hakan Altinay, head of the Open Society Institute in Istanbul, says that it is "scandalous" that the new government has done nothing to amend article 301 of the penal code, used in recent years to prosecute dozens of writers and journalists for ‘insulting Turkishness’. Reform of article 301 is a key EU demand.

Altinay also criticises slow progress in pursuing those responsible for the murder earlier this year of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. "If they don’t fix 301 and Dink’s trial [of his assassins], then they will lose friends…and we will conclude they are not serious on living in a country with high levels of freedom," he says.

Cengiz Aktar, an academic and commentator, argues that "the EU is completely off the agenda". Aktar says that the government is "not even insisting on opening any new [negotiating] chapters" with the EU. Ahmet Evin, a professor at the Sabanci University in Istanbul questions whether "the government is really serious about its European aims and objectives".

Bahadir Kaleagasi, head of the Turkish business association Tusiad in Brussels, also notes the slow start. "Probably they obtained a bigger majority than they expected…and instead of carrying on with business, they went in search of something big...and so created a kind of paralysis for themselves," says Keleagasi.

But Murat Mercan, an AK member of parliament and chairman of the foreign affairs committee, rejects the charge, saying that "anyone who says there is reform fatigue is wrong".

Mercan emphasises the foreign affairs challenges that the new government ran into as soon as it was formed, including the vote by a US Congress committee labelling the Armenian massacres of 1915 as "genocide" and "the Iraqi incursion problem".

The surge in attacks and killings by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in recent weeks has dominated Turkish political debate, culminating last week (17 October) in the overwhelming agreement by the Turkish parliament to allow military ‘incursions’ into northern Iraq in pursuit of the PKK. But columnist Cengiz Candar argues that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushed into agreeing the incursions under pressure both from events and the military. "Will Erdogan be able to control developments or will the developments control Erdogan?" asks Candar.

Evin is concerned that "if there is a major military operation [into northern Iraq] anti-Turkey voices in the European Council will be much stronger".

But Mercan insists that these challenges are not distracting the government from other issues. He points to the debate on writing a new constitution that the government started in September. "A group of six academics prepared a draft constitution," says Mercan, "and it’s now under review by party officials and once [the draft is] finalised, there will be a wide debate starting in January 2008, or before, with civil society, universities, with all walks of life."

Altinay argues that overhauling the military-inspired constitution of 1982 "is a great tour-de-force" by the AKP but adds that "even great ideas can be implemented miserably". Women’s groups in particular were appalled to find that the draft constitution labelled women as a vulnerable group along with the elderly, children and the disabled. Academic and leading women’s activist Selma Acuner warns the government against "a top down constitution", arguing that "civil society is not like ten years ago".

Mercan says that reforms will not wait for the constitution debate to be concluded. "Political and democratic reforms will go ahead…[amending article] 301 will not wait until the constitution is done," he says. But Mercan adds that article 301 cannot be reformed before a major report on 6 November from the European Commission on Turkey’s progress towards membership, "due to technical reasons such as the parliament working on the budget until mid-November".

Mercan insists that the AK government is strongly committed to the EU process. "We have an extensive programme to 2013 to make all the necessary changes to laws and procedures," he says. But he admits that he is disappointed that new negotiation chapters have yet to open under the Portuguese presidency of the EU. He says that this is due to French reluctance to open new chapters until the EU agrees to France’s idea of a ‘group of wise men’ producing a report on the EU’s future.

But Turkish liberals are putting Erdogan under pressure to improve his act fast, with many urging the EU to be tougher on the government.

Eralp says that observers in the EU and Turkey should "not give a free hand to Erdogan and the AK party". Altinay gives the government an end of the year deadline. "That’s a generous window of opportunity to see what they are made of," he says.

• Kirsty Hughes is a policy analyst and writer based in London.

Just three months after it took office, Turkey’s new government has attracted the wrath of liberal commentators for its uncertain start.