German presidency seeks to finalise Kosovo’s status

Steering the debate over Kosovo’s future status to a successful conclusion is a crucial priority for Germany’s EU presidency. Talks are to start in Vienna next week on the Kosovo plan put forward by UN special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari.

In the background lies the carrot of future EU membership for Serbia and eventually for Kosovo. But back in Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a rearguard action by some, including in her own Christian Democrat Union, who would prefer to stop enlargement once and for all after Croatia.

Officials and politicians in Berlin do not expect the Serbs to support the Ahtisaari plan but they hope the opposition can be managed. One senior German diplomat in Berlin says that for Merkel "it’s very important that we don’t destabilise Serbia, so we try to make the Kosovo solution digestible for Serbia". He emphasises that the Serbs have to feel they are listened to: "They can negotiate the Ahtisaari plan - there are places where the Serbs could improve it a bit…in the end they won’t formally accept it but we will see how strong their resistance is."

But the diplomat adds that the EU "must not underestimate the danger that Kosovo flares up" - a danger underlined earlier this week when two protesters died in clashes with police in Pristina, Kosovo’s main city.

Christian Social Union politician Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a member of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, insists that Serbia must not be allowed to delay the negotiations: "It is of the utmost importance that the negotiations are limited and that a timeframe with a clear date is set so we do not have again the Serbs saying they have got to form a government first."

Guttenberg criticises outgoing Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s reaction to the Ahtisaari plan, calling it "very unhealthy, with Kostunica more or less threatening to cut diplomatic ties". He sees "a certain chance in mutual disappointment - it would still be better than it being seen as a win or lose situation".

But he agrees that stabilising the situation in Serbia will not be helped by those, not least in the Christian Democrat and the Christian Social Union, arguing to halt EU enlargement after Croatia: "I try to confront that very simplistic approach…and I criticise those who use foreign policy as a populistic element for domestic strategy."

Barbara Lippert from the Institute for European Politics in Berlin says that enlargement fatigue runs very deep in Germany but that it divides the parties. "The Social Democrats are very aware of the security motives to bind the western Balkans in," she says.

If Merkel is to pull off a Kosovo deal, she is going to have to deal with enlargement arguments back home and not only in the Balkans.

• Kirsty Hughes is a freelance analyst based in London.

Steering the debate over Kosovo’s future status to a successful conclusion is a crucial priority for Germany’s EU presidency. Talks are to start in Vienna next week on the Kosovo plan put forward by UN special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari.