Ahtisaari plan is only solution for Kosovo

Ask senior EU diplomats what the Plan B is and they laugh nervously. Then they say: "There is no Plan B!" Tomorrow (2 February), Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, will fly to Belgrade and Pristina to present to the authorities in Serbia and Kosovo his proposal for the future of the province. This is Plan A. So far it is the only one.

Ahtisaari, who was asked by the United Nations in November 2005 to negotiate a solution for the future of the province or, failing that, come up with a proposal for it, is making the trip rather as a courtesy. Vojislav Koötunica, the Serbian premier, and members of his government have announced that they will not receive the UN envoy. So the package will have to be delivered to Boris Tadic, Serbia’s president.

Since the end of the Kosovo war in 1999, the territory has been under the jurisdiction of the UN. Of its ­population of two million people 90% are ethnic Albanians who will settle for nothing less than independence. But Kosovo remains a part of Serbia, which means that such a solution on its status is far harder than it was for the former Yugoslav republics.

Last year, Ahtisaari presided over somewhat desultory talks between Serbs and ethnic Albanians. After failing to reach an agreement, he put together a package of proposals which he was ready to hand over to the parties last October.

But Serbia requested a delay, which was granted on the grounds that the plan might have encouraged more voters to opt for the extreme nationalist Radical party in elections, which were held on 21 January.

Since then no government has been formed which is the official reason why Koötunica, who is now the caretaker prime minister, is refusing to see Ahtisaari. That Ahtisaari would not wait was condemned by Andreja Mladenovic, the spokes-person of Koötunica’s party, who said: "It seems like Serbia is being treated like a colonial state that should do everything that is expected of it."

Western diplomats, however, believe that Koötunica is doing anything he can to delay the process hoping he can bolster Russian opposition to it and sow division among EU countries.

According to diplomatic sources, Ahtisaari’s plan will, without mentioning the word "independence", "describe" a Kosovo that would be independent. Areas where Serbs live would be given a large measure of autonomy and Kosovo would have a security force of some 2,500 men. It would also be allowed to join international organisations.

Since 1999 the UN mission in Kosovo has supervised the province and devolved some power to its elected authorities. The plan now being drawn up with Ahtisaari’s office is for a new mission to take over when the UN leaves. This plan would consist of a large EU security mission and a smaller ‘International Civilian Office’, which would be EU-dominated and its head would also lead the EU mission.

The problem now is that Russia, with which western diplomats had been expecting to make a deal over Kosovo, has been gradually hardening its position: President Vladimir Putin has said that he will not support any deal to which the Serbian government has not given its assent. Belgrade is proposing autonomy for Kosovo, which Albanians reject. In private, though, Russian diplomats have not ruled out independence.

What the diplomats do not know is whether Russia will, in the end, make a deal over Kosovo. If it does not, then chaos is likely to ensue and probably violence too.

Unless there is a new UN Security Council resolution on the future of Kosovo, then EU states will certainly not endorse a follow-on mission. Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated parliament will declare independence and some countries, led probably by the US and UK, will recognise the new state.

In this situation the Serbian-dominated north of the province will, in effect, secede, and Serbs who live in enclaves in the centre of the province will likely flee or be ethnically cleansed. Faced with this prospect, it is hardly surprising that EU diplomats insist there can be no alternative to the Ahtisaari plan.

• Tim Judah is the author of Kosovo: War & Revenge.

Ask senior EU diplomats what the Plan B is and they laugh nervously. Then they say: "There is no Plan B!" Tomorrow (2 February), Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, will fly to Belgrade and Pristina to present to the authorities in Serbia and Kosovo his proposal for the future of the province. This is Plan A. So far it is the only one.