Twins test patience of patriotic Poles

Standing on Warsaw’s Pi?sudskiego Square on Polish Independence Day (11 November), teenagers Natalia Pawtowska, Aleksandra Pastuszkie and Ma?gorzata Polak are holding a banner proclaiming: "Class 1A loves Poland".

Their teacher, Jan Micha´s, is congratulated by an old man who gives the banner the thumbs-up. The girls cheer because they can see from a giant television screen on the square that their banner has appeared on one of the two national channels broadcasting the Independence Day celebrations live.

Less than 50 metres away Polish President Lech Kaczyn´ski and his brother Jaros?aw, the prime minister, are inspecting troops and greeting foreign ambassadors.

They are at the centre of the celebration that has bedecked Warsaw in red and white. Zyte?? Gilowska?, the country’s finance minister, says more than 90% of Poles define themselves as patriotic.

It is not a coincidence that local elections are less than 24 hours away. Since coming to power the twins have frequently played on Poland’s patriotism as a way to attract votes.

Lech even took the trouble on election day (Sunday 12 November) to attend the launch of TVP Historia, a new state-run channel that will promote Polish national history.

But there are suggestions that a backlash against the twins might be beginning at home and abroad.

Partial results from Sunday’s poll, the first in which EU citizens were allowed to vote, show that the twins fared badly, losing to the centre-right opposition party Civic Platform.

Foreign businessmen in the Polish capital say that part of the reason for local labour shortages is that Poles who have gone to Ireland or Britain do not want to return to a country with such a government. Relations with the EU are scarcely better. This week they have gone into freefall.

On Monday (13 November) Poland caused indignation among EU foreign ministers when it blocked negotiations with Russia on a major EU-Russia agreement. Foreign Minister Anna Fotyga, a confidante of the twins, said that Moscow must first rescind its import ban on Polish meat.

On Tuesday (14 November), the Commission issued a stern warning that Poland needs to do more to stem a budget deficit which it expects will swell to 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2007.

That warning is being seen as a last chance for Poland to bring its finances in line with the EU budget rules before facing a warning from EU finance ministers.

Under the Stability and Growth Pact, which underpins the euro, EU members are expected to limit their deficits to 3% of GDP.

With Poland currently enjoying a period of significant growth the Commission and other international bodies are urging the Poles to act now to cut the deficit, before the economy’s fortunes turn.

But in Warsaw there are suspicions that the Commission’s move is politically motivated - the expression of Brussels’s anger over the Kaczyn´skis’ pledge to hold a referendum on euro membership.

Zyt? Gilowsk? insisted that the twins would "certainly" campaign for a ‘Yes’ vote and she accused the EU of lacking trust.

But critics said the two men - and Jaros?aw in particular - are busy consolidating power by placing eurosceptics in key positions and are increasingly resisting perceived interference from Brussels.

"It has already happened," said one diplomat referring to a purge of pro-Europeans in the foreign ministry, "last week they changed the rules so directors in the foreign ministry will be political appointees".

The brothers are also accused of trying to undermine the power of the Polish Central Bank by stripping it of supervisory powers. This idea has been heavily criticised in Brussels and Frankfurt and, a little more subtly, in Warsaw.

Lidia Adamska, a member of the board of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, herself a civil servant, avoided criticising the government directly but her concern about stripping the bank of its powers is palpable. "There are different opinions expressed," she said, adding that a final decision was still "a long way away".

Standing on Warsaw’s Pi?sudskiego Square on Polish Independence Day (11 November), teenagers Natalia Pawtowska, Aleksandra Pastuszkie and Ma?gorzata Polak are holding a banner proclaiming: "Class 1A loves Poland".

• Primary Source