Tough months ahead for confident Commission

Support from the most powerful EU leaders is crucial for any European Commission president’s chances of success during his term of office. There is a widely held view that José Manuel Barroso is in for a rough ride over the next 12 months as UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of only two leaders who actively supported him as Commission president, draws closer to the end of his political career.

At the same time, Barroso is expected to get into conflict with his other main supporter in the European Council, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as they clash over key parts of the Commission’s agendas for energy market liberalisation and the end of the veto in justice and home affairs. If, as widely trailed, Barroso demands next year new powers to force energy companies to split up or ‘unbundle’ their generating and distribution businesses, it will be Germany’s government and its energy giants like E.ON that put up the strongest opposition. Similarly, Germany is one of the leading defenders of maintaining the status quo for decision-making on criminal and judicial matters, arguing that abandoning the veto now amounts to ‘cherry-picking’ the stalled EU constitution. This would undermine Germany’s plan to salvage as much as possible of the text rejected by French and Dutch voters last year.

But Barroso’s ideas, though regularly derided as lacking in ambition at the time of launch, often win the backing of a majority of EU leaders.

Two years ago, Barroso’s term as Commission president started on the wrong foot, as he misread the mood in the European Parliament and tried to push through the nomination of Italy’s Rocco Buttiglione as commissioner for justice and home affairs. To win over MEPs, he was forced to reshuffle his team, ending up with Franco Frattini, one of this team’s more impressive players.

Then Barroso fell foul of the campaign on the EU constitution for the French referendum in May 2005, just as his predominantly pro-free market team was trying to establish its policy lines, particularly on controversial proposals it had inherited, such as plans to liberalise the services market. French President Jacques Chirac made it clear he did not want Barroso to get involved in the debate and the Commission president obliged by staying away. Nevertheless, Barroso and his team continue to be blamed in French circles for 2-3% of the 55% who voted against the text. And comments by Regional Policy Commissioner Danuta Hübner that de-localisation of factories and jobs to the new member states was inevitable did few favours for the pro-constitution camp. Chirac also lambasted the Commission for failing to respond to lay-offs such as Hewlett-Packard’s decision to scrap 5,900 jobs across Europe.

It was the response to this attack and to the failure to get a deal on the 2007-13 budget at the June 2005 summit that marked a turnaround in Barroso’s fortunes. A letter he sent to Blair in October ahead of the informal Hampton Court summit set out a few ideas for bridging the gap between member states on the budget, including the proposal for a fund to help workers affected by restructuring find new jobs. He also suggested a wide-ranging review of all EU spending and sources of revenue in 2008-09. This question, which had contributed to the failure of the budget negotiations in June, would be a key element in getting a deal at the December summit as it provided a way for the UK government to claim the way was open for a major reform of farm support before 2013 while enabling Chirac to argue the opposite.

The Hampton Court summit saw an upturn in Barroso’s fortunes. Working closely with Blair, who had dropped his opposition to an EU energy policy, Barroso used the impetus given by the summit to push ahead with an agenda focusing on energy, innovation, migration and higher education reform. The impact of this agenda can be seen in the policy priorities Barroso has pursued since October 2005 ranging from energy efficiency to the European Institute of Technology and initiatives on controlling migration.

Barroso’s position has been strengthened because the approach has been endorsed by a majority, if not all, of EU leaders.

This growing support for Barroso’s strategy found its strongest expression this year when his energy green paper won backing at the March summit, although Merkel expressed some reservations.

In May Barroso unveiled his citizens’ agenda for Europe, focusing on delivering on policies which matter to the public, including the bid to lower mobile phone roaming charges as well as a review of the internal market. Some elements such as a European entitlements card, setting out citizens’ rights, have disappeared from the agenda while Barroso’s call to end vetoes in police and judicial co-operation has been blocked by governments.

While some have criticised it as either an example of economic populism or accused the president of failing to come out strongly in defence of the constitution, Barroso’s approach has become the official line of the EU leaders in the absence of any credible alternative to relaunch the constitution debate.

Next year will be the crucial test for Barroso and his team to see if they can start delivering on their policy priorities and also whether their approach on energy sector liberalisation survives the political resistance of key member states such as Germany. Barroso is confident about the future, believing that he has a very strong case for action on energy unbundling, while the renewed attempt to cut red tape through the better regulation initiative, another major priority of his mandate, is close to Merkel’s heart. Recent meetings with French presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy and the likely successor to Blair, UK Finance Minister Gordon Brown, have left him positive that he will be able to work with the next generation of EU leaders as the current one bows out.

Support from the most powerful EU leaders is crucial for any European Commission president’s chances of success during his term of office. There is a widely held view that José Manuel Barroso is in for a rough ride over the next 12 months as UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of only two leaders who actively supported him as Commission president, draws closer to the end of his political career.

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