Will January be Darfur’s next date with death?

During two days earlier this month more than 50 people, including 27 children, were killed in seven villages and a refugee camp in western Darfur, Sudan. Witnesses to the attacks said children were taken from their mothers and shot while women and men were severely beaten. The incidents underline how brittle is the situation in Sudan’s war-torn province and suggest that the peace agreement, brokered last May, is not being implemented.

Against this backdrop, the international community is yet again faced with a countdown to a deadline after which international troops may be expelled from Darfur, which would then permit systematic massacres to resume. The African Union mission in Darfur (AMIS) was granted a last-minute extension until January of an earlier mandate, which was due to run out last September.

European Union diplomats are working behind the scenes along with their United Nations and US counterparts to try to broker a working solution to the gravely unstable situation. Pekka Haavisto, the EU special representative for Sudan, said recent visits by US and UK missions and a forthcoming EU mission at the end of the month were all aimed at persuading the Sudanese government of the need for a UN peacekeeping force to replace the under-staffed and under-equipped AMIS force.

But many believe the chances of introducing a UN force have already dwindled. At the beginning of the month, the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir yet again rejected the idea of a UN mission, saying it would be perceived as an invading force. His comments came while he attended an Africa-China summit in Beijing, where the Chinese appeared in no mood to put pressure on their oil-rich friends in Khartoum. "China fully understands the concerns of Sudan and hopes Sudan can strengthen the dialogue with all parties," Chinese President Hu Jintao said.

Diplomacy instead is shifting towards trying to get al-Bashir to agree to an ‘AMIS-plus’ mission. This would involve at least doubling the current 7,000-strong force with support from the UN in terms of help with monitoring violations of the peace agreement, logistical support, involvement in the chain of command and helping provide security for humanitarian organisations. The mission might contain up to 200 UN personnel on the ground to provide this support and, apart from African troops, could also involve troops from Muslim countries such as Pakistan. But there is no guarantee that even this idea will be acceptable to the Sudanese government. "Khartoum as always has the last word," said one EU official.

Hope is also being pinned on an offer from the Eritrean government to mediate in talks between Khartoum and the rebel groups which have refused to sign the peace agreement.

But some experts believe the international community needs to get tough with Khartoum and stop placating the recalcitrant government. "We need to move from essentially the international policy of empty threats to actually beginning to make the Sudan government accountable," said David Mozersky, director of International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa project. He advocates applying tough sanctions on the government, taking it to task for violations of the peace agreement and planning for an international force to be imposed on Darfur in the event that Khartoum refuses to accept one. The UN’s International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur has listed senior government officials as being responsible for atrocities and they should be brought to justice, said Mozersky. "The Sudan government knows the international community is ultimately a toothless entity which will express moral outrage but is not willing to make any tough decisions including sanctions," he added. Other non-governmental organisations say an arms embargo is being violated by all sides in the conflict and targeted sanctions should begin with governmental officials.

In this delicate diplomatic situation, many in Brussels believe sanctions may not be the best way forward. "Is this a real threat for al-Bashir? There could be reasons to adopt sanctions but this would [have an] impact on refugees," said the EU official.

Whatever the outcome of the coming weeks, Haavisto warned that the EU must be prepared to finance the current African Union mission for a further six months next year before a more long-term peacekeeping solution is found. A meeting of the African Union on 30 November could determine the extension of the mission, but equally negotiations could go down to the wire. He said: "We do not currently see any obstacles [to an extension of the mission] apart from financing it. It’s an uncomfortable situation because we have been planning for a UN mission which would involve burden-sharing. But the pressure is coming back to us again, just like it did in September."

During two days earlier this month more than 50 people, including 27 children, were killed in seven villages and a refugee camp in western Darfur, Sudan. Witnesses to the attacks said children were taken from their mothers and shot while women and men were severely beaten. The incidents underline how brittle is the situation in Sudan’s war-torn province and suggest that the peace agreement, brokered last May, is not being implemented.