Bouquets, brickbats and puzzles for 2007

Star in the making: Toomas Hendrik Ilves, president of Estonia. Suave, savvy and cynical, this Swedish-born, American-educated political heavyweight has returned from a big job at the European Parliament to put his pint-sized country on the map. Whether delivering the West’s message to Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia ("Misha: just shut the f**k up"), charming George Bush, or hobnobbing with Carl Bildt, his Swedish foreign minister chum, Ilves had a flying start in 2006 and will be the ex-captive nations’ best spokesman in 2007.

Biggest disappointment: Poland’s Law and Justice government wasted most of 2006 in political intrigue. Dropping the popular prime minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, was an unforgivable display of jealousy by Law and Justice’s party leader, Jarosl?aw Kaczyn´ski. His own lacklustre and devious performance in the top job highlighted his predecessor’s merits. Poland’s prickly and incompetent foreign policy is a black hole in the heart of Europe.

Clearest success: post-communist Europe’s most prosperous country has dodged reform and kept old structures intact, despite its impressive-sounding Prime Minister Janez Jansa. But at least Slovenia joined the euro, proving that the common currency is not just an "old Europe" club.

Most worrying trend: between the Baltic, Black Sea and Adriatic there is not a single strong reforming government. Drift, muddle and sleaze were the hallmarks of 2006. Internal and external pressure ought to bring better government - but in some countries the real political meltdown is yet to come. Russia’s divide-and-rule policy of flattery, cheap gas and bribes, is nobbling Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovenia. Post-communist elites are wired for quick deals and personal gain, not long-term national interest. The Kremlin knows this.

Politics of the gutter award: Ferenc Gyurcsány, prime minister of Hungary, for admitting that his government had lied and done nothing and then turning a blind eye to police brutality; he shares the prize with the opposition leader Viktor Orban, for cynical populism and mystifyingly authoritarian socialist-style policies.

Unsung heroes: jointly, Gediminas Kirkilas, Lithuania’s prime minister, whose minority administration has surpassed all expectations, and his old friend and ally, the conservative opposition leader, Andrius Kubilius. A rare example of personal friendship and patriotism surmounting party interest.

Loser: abandoned by the west, and with a defeatist political elite unable to look beyond Russia, Moldova is sinking. Romania’s EU membership will highlight its desperate plight further. If any post-communist country faces real collapse, it is Moldova.

Official of the year: Andris Piebalgs, the EU’s energy commissioner, is a sparkling advertisement for the post-communist countries’ political abilities. Unlike most of his fellow-commissioners, he understands both the technicalities of his brief and its political dimensions and has the nerve to take on the powerful energy lobbies in Europe’s biggest countries who are as contemptuous of politicians as they are cowardly towards Russia. Clone him.

Soggy bottom: Croatia’s sullen and obstructive approach to pluralism, media freedom and the rule of law remains an alarming pothole on the road to further EU enlargement. Nobody wants to upset the murky and convenient status quo.

Symbolic triumph: Radek Sikorski, Poland’s defence minister, switched his ministry’s entire wine order to Georgia. If the Georgian wine industry gets its act together on quality control and deliveries, that will be the tipple of choice to celebrate 2008.

Big question: what are the real effects of east-west migration? A million-plus people have left the worst-governed ex-communist countries. Predictably, labour markets there have tightened hugely, raising wages. But that has not yet attracted many migrants home - they want not just money but better treatment, at work and from the state. Until that happens, worries of depopulation in the east and overcrowding in the west will grow.

• The author is central and eastern Europe correspondent of The Economist.

The parts of the energy package that the Commissioners found most difficult to agree on were the greenhouse gas reduction targets and the issue of ownership unbundling for energy companies.

• Primary Source