Keeping the magnet attractive

On 5 January, Germany will preside over the first official meeting of a 27-member European Union after the admission of Romania and Bulgaria four days earlier. But it will be the possible future phases of EU enlargement that are likely to give Germany the biggest headaches.

The controversy over Turkish EU membership and the EU’s ability to absorb new members seems likely to continue, although talks among EU leaders this week (14-15 December) may make both issues a little clearer.

It is the countries of the western Balkans that will present Germany with the most pressing political problems.

At the end of January elections in Serbia are expected to provide a boost for nationalist and anti-EU parties. Germany will have to pick up where the Finnish presidency left off in 2006, sending a common EU message to Serbian citizens that it is in Serbia’s interests not to slip further away from the EU.

Germany will also have to weigh increasingly vocal demands from Italy and Austria that the EU restart talks with Serbia on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement - a major step towards membership of the Union, but one which is deadlocked over Serbia’s failure to capture suspected war criminals Radko Mladic´ and Radovan Karadzic.

Just days after the Serbian elections Marti Ahtisaari, the United Nations’ special envoy to Kosovo, will present his report on the province’s future status - most likely another major test for the German presidency.

His proposal is expected to call for Kosovo to gain conditional independence. Both Serbia and Russia have said they would oppose such a plan, meaning the German presidency would struggle to prevent a serious fissure between the EU and Serbia and its allies.

Even within the EU there is some concern that granting Kosovo some sort of independence could cause a dangerous precedent. EU member states, most notably Spain, are concerned that Kosovo could become an inspiration for their own regional separatists. Others are concerned that Russian-backed separatist regions in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina would interpret any Kosovo solution as a precedent.

The German presidency will have to try to reach a common agreement among EU member states, not least because Ahtisaari is also likely to suggest that the Union have sweeping powers over the future running of the province, including the EU’s biggest and most difficult security mission to date.

Before the end of the German presidency, the United Nations’ proconsulate in Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to scale down and transfer its powers - albeit greatly reduced - to the EU. The transition is likely to be a difficult one to manage with Bosniaks and Serbs continuing to argue over police and constitutional reform, which are key EU demands.

Germany may also be asked to reconcile Macedonian demands for a date to begin membership talks and the debate over future EU enlargement. It will also have to keep on track negotiations on membership with Croatia.

On 5 January, Germany will preside over the first official meeting of a 27-member European Union after the admission of Romania and Bulgaria four days earlier. But it will be the possible future phases of EU enlargement that are likely to give Germany the biggest headaches.

• Primary Source