Policies must get wiser as EU grows older

Population politics has a bad image in many European countries. At its least offensive, it is linked to traditional roles for women; at worst, it is associated with authoritarianism. Last week, the European Commission suggested another way to consider the issue, when it held the first forum on Europe’s demographic future (30-31 October).

Europe is an ageing continent, whose population is set to decline. Demographers predict that between 2030 and 2050 the population of the current 25 member states will shrink by 20 million people. The decline will not be shared equally. The populations of France and Britain will remain stable, while those of Germany and Italy will fall by several million.

And Europeans are becoming older. As David Willetts, a former UK pensions minister observed, Donald Rumsfeld’s jibe about ‘old Europe’ may have been too close to the literal, demographic truth. But it was not wholly right. Even in the ‘new Europe’, in Poland and the Czech Republic, the population is ageing faster than in other EU member states, such as the UK and Sweden. Nevertheless, all countries will face difficulties in making the demographic arithmetic add up. In future, there will be fewer workers to support a larger, older population and public spending related to age is projected to rise by 3-4 percentage points by 2050. This is a challenge for all Europeans. But does it mean that the European Union has the solution?

The EU has to tread carefully, because attitudes to demographic policy vary significantly between member states. In Spain, there has been strong opposition to any policy to increase the birth rate. Family creation is regarded as a private matter. In France, policies to encourage childbearing are quite respectable and politicians appeal to citizens’ sense of patriotism to populate la republique. Conscious of these different attitudes, the European Commission has taken a measured approach. Although it has stated that Europe should "return to demographic growth", this does not mean that there will be an EU baby directive. Like many national governments, the Commission considers the appropriate role for policy interventions is to create the right conditions for people to have the children they want to have.

Last month, the Commission published a communication listing policy options. There were lots of sensible ideas, such as helping people to balance work and family life, enabling older people to stay in work for longer and integrating migrants more effectively. In essence, demographic policy is social policy re-defined. Aurore Wanlin, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, thinks this agenda is right in its own terms and could also help to make the EU’s agenda on economic reform more appealing. But, she adds "the Commission is stepping into waters where its competencies are unclear".

There are questions about what the EU can and should do, when national governments control the most powerful policy levers, such as pensions, social security, health and social care services. Last week’s demographic forum showed that one important role for the Commission is to bring member states together. The participants at the forum welcomed the chance to learn about best practice in other member states and to debate issues from universal childcare to changing attitudes to ageing. Everyone likes to know how well or badly they are doing in comparison to their neighbours. The Commission’s role in raising this debate, monitoring policies and exhorting national politicians to ensure their policies live up to their own warm words is also useful.

The most powerful tool at the EU’s disposal is legislation. Professor Anand Menon, director of the European Research Institute at Birmingham University, says that the EU has an increasingly important impact on welfare states through its ‘law-driven social policy’. The directive on equal treatment in employment and occupations is an example of where legislation is important in setting common standards of fairness. This directive outlawed all kinds of discrimination in the workplace. Among other things, it resulted in member states taking action to ensure that older workers are not penalised in the labour market.

But the EU must be wary of ignoring the distinctiveness of different welfare states. Demographic policy is being re-defined in a useful way to support people’s aspirations for work and family life. But member states should learn from each other by choice rather than necessity.

• Jennifer Rankin works for the Economist in Brussels

Population politics has a bad image in many European countries. At its least offensive, it is linked to traditional roles for women; at worst, it is associated with authoritarianism. Last week, the European Commission suggested another way to consider the issue, when it held the first forum on Europe’s demographic future (30-31 October).