Holiday isle on collision course?

In August, British holidaymakers are out in force in the cafes and beaches of Cyprus, both north and south. If you are from the EU it is easier now than three years ago to cross the Green Line between the two sides of the island, with no injunctions on the Greek Cypriot side to be back by 5pm. But the slightly surreal dusty crossing at Ledra Palace in Nicosia, winding its way past run-down hotels and closed shops, is still patrolled by UN troops, and half the Greek Cypriot population in the south have never crossed the line to see the rest of the island after 30 years of division.

The EU rightly prides itself on promoting peace and reconciliation among once warring parties. But after more than two years of EU membership (the whole island in the Union but the acquis suspended in the north), the antagonism between the two sides appears if anything to be growing. It is not an EU success story.

The spotlight is due to fall on Cyprus this autumn, as the EU and Turkey wrangle over whether there is any link between Turkey failing to open its ports to the Republic of Cyprus (run by the Greek Cypriots) and the EU’s failure to end the isolation of northern Cyprus. Not surprisingly, the two communities on the island do not agree about that either.

The elegantly made-up Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, who is the Republic of Cyprus’s top female diplomat, takes a hard-line on the possibility raised by Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for enlargement, of Turkey’s trajectory towards EU membership being derailed by "a train crash". Sitting in her Nicosia office she insists with steely determination that: "It is up to Turkey not to have a train crash." She is sure the Turkish military is the key decision-maker: "We see Erdogan and [Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah] Gül [behave] in a very arrogant way - and others in the military...but I don’t think anyone wants a train crash unless the military in Turkey opt for that."

Rasit Pertev, top adviser to the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, and frantically busy in early August as the UN makes a new push to restart talks, argues that: "If there’s a train crash, a big bit of Cyprus will be under that train…everything will be up in the air and everything will be re-questioned."

Ali Talat, a somewhat isolated figure in his presidential offices in northern Nicosia, firmly backs Gül’s offer to open Turkish ports in return for opening of northern Cypriot ports: "Gül’s proposal is the best solution as that very wisely links the two issues - the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots and restrictions of Turkey against Greek Cypriots." Later an official adds: "If Turkey opens ports without northern Cyprus ports opening, it will increase the isolation of northern Cyprus."

But Kozakou-Marcoullis rejects this: "As far as we’re concerned, what Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots call isolation is the result primarily of the occupation." And her Foreign Minister George Lillikas insists there is no possible trade-off for Turkey’s obligation to open its ports: "Turkey wants to have something in return for fulfilling its obligations - it’s not happening and we won’t allow it to happen."

The EU’s foreign ministers did agree in April 2004 - after the Turkish Cypriot side voted ‘Yes’ and the Greek Cypriot side ‘No’ to the UN Annan Plan to reunite the island - that they would take measures to end the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots.

But the Greek Cypriots have blocked a European Commission proposal for direct trade since 2004. EU aid funds are due to arrive - but these too were temporarily blocked in early July by the Greek Cypriots claiming the projects proposed would encourage further division of the two communities, something denied by other EU sources and the Turkish Cypriots.

Turkish Cypriot member of parliament, Ozdil Nami, from Talat’s Republican Turkish Party, is worried by the EU’s failure to deliver on its promises. He says: "It is very important for us to have links between Turkish Cypriots and the EU to keep the pro-EU spirit alive…but it is much more difficult when we are out of the EU and our arch-rival is in and doing its best to make [such links] inoperable." These negative dynamics, he says, "are beginning to alienate even very pro-EU people who put their reputation on the line with their EU vision".

But Lillikas is adamant: "What do they want - to get the [financial] assistance or to create a separate state?" Even Nicos Anastasiades, a Greek Cypriot moderate and leader of Democratic Rally (Disy), who campaigned for a ‘Yes’ to the Annan Plan, is worried that a direct trade deal could encourage division: "I am in favour of finding a way to facilitate the Turkish Cypriots to have trade, but I believe without a dialogue on the essence of the problem, you can’t."

With a new push from the UN, the two sides did exchange lists of both ‘daily life’ and substantive issues at the end of July, aiming to restart talks at technical level in August. But discussions on the modalities of such talks got nowhere in early August and will now restart in September. On both sides of the Green Line there are those who doubt whether Greek Cypriot president Tassos Papadopoulos really wants a rapid deal. Tasos Mitsopoulos, a spokesman for Disy, argues: "Papadopoulos’s policy is against the urgent settlement of the problem as he thinks things will be more favourable for our side after two-three years."

So the Cyprus problem continues - but it is now a headache for the EU, not just the UN. It is also a democratic conundrum. Rasit Pertev argues: "We [Turkish Cypriots] are Europeans that have been disenfranchised, we have no voice in EU decision-making mechanisms, no access to anything." Andros Kyprianou, who is spokesman for Akel, the Greek Cypriot communist party which is in coalition with Papadopoulos, is unapologetic. "We talk on behalf of the island," he says, "and the Turkish Cypriots have no right to express their view because they do not participate in the Republic of Cyprus."

Some EU diplomats still have faint hopes that some small package on direct trade for northern Cyprus could be put together to help avoid that train crash.

But in the face of such antagonistic viewpoints between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, no one should hold their breath.

• Kirsty Hughes is a freelance journalist based in London.

In August, British holidaymakers are out in force in the cafes and beaches of Cyprus, both north and south. If you are from the EU it is easier now than three years ago to cross the Green Line between the two sides of the island, with no injunctions on the Greek Cypriot side to be back by 5pm. But the slightly surreal dusty crossing at Ledra Palace in Nicosia, winding its way past run-down hotels and closed shops, is still patrolled by UN troops, and half the Greek Cypriot population in the south have never crossed the line to see the rest of the island after 30 years of division.