Greece and Turkey. Mission to Ankara

The troubles affecting Greek support for Turkey's EU aspirations

COSTAS KARAMANLIS would like to be the first Greek prime minister in half a century to make an official visit to Turkey. Besides demonstrating the positive shift in Aegean relations, a trip would put a stamp on Mr Karamanlis's own contribution. His centre-right government has consistently backed Turkey's desire to join the European Union. And he gets on well with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, a fellow soccer enthusiast.

The official visit was first planned for June, but Mr Karamanlis was persuaded to wait until August, when Turkey should have cleared the last remaining hurdle to the start of EU membership talks on October 3rd: signing the protocol extending its customs union with the EU to the ten new members that joined last year, including Cyprus. Yet last week Mr Karamanlis called off his visit again. Turkey had signed the protocol, but also issued a statement that this did not imply recognition of the Greek-Cypriot government.

Such non-recognition, declared Yannis Valinakis, Greece's deputy foreign minister, “will cast a shadow over Turkey's accession talks.” Greek enthusiasm for Turkish membership may wane if Turkey keeps refusing to recognise the Greek-Cypriot government. The stakes were raised last week when France's prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, said it was “inconceivable” that membership talks could begin with a country that did not recognise all 25 members of the EU. This week the European enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn, responded that new conditions could not be set for the start of entry talks.

In this confusing situation, Mr Karamanlis reluctantly called off his visit. He is worried about losing popular approval if he seems not to care about Cyprus, or to care less about it than France does. The island remains divided after the Greek-Cypriots voted overwhelmingly against the UN reunification plan in a referendum in April 2004 (the Turkish-Cypriots voted in favour). Showing solidarity with Greek-Cypriots, even though they shot down the UN plan, counts in Greek public opinion.

Cyprus is not the only issue. Nationalist Greeks are quick to respond to pin-pricks, which often involve the Turkish armed forces; for example, there have been renewed Greek complaints of airspace violations. Turkey is resisting pressure to reopen a seminary for Greek Orthodox priests on the island of Heybeli, near Istanbul, an issue that Greeks see as a benchmark for assessing the Turkish government's commitment to EU standards of human rights and religious freedom.

Among Greeks, there is still a widespread desire to see Turkey following a European road to respectability and regional peace. Since Turkey became an EU candidate, the Greek and Greek-Cypriot governments have both cut defence spending sharply. A Europeanised Turkey would relieve deep-seated feelings of insecurity in Athens and Nicosia about Turkey's large size and powerful army.

In practical ways, too, Greek-Turkish rapprochement is steaming ahead. Mr Karamanlis and Mr Erdogan met in July, on the border in Thrace, where they initiated the construction of a pipeline to carry gas from Turkey via Greece to Italy - their first cross-border infrastructure project. Many well-off Greeks now take holidays on Turkey's Aegean coast, where five-star hotels are cheaper and offer better service than on many Greek islands. There is talk of a Turkish conglomerate buying a stake in a Greek-owned oil refinery. If Turkey starts its EU talks in October, Mr Karamanlis may yet get to Ankara - and into the history books - before the year is out.

Feature looks at relations between Turkey and Greece, which are progressing politically and economically despite tensions on issues such as Cyprus;