EU strives to keep Middle East peace talks alive

Date: 04/02/1999

A high-level EU delegation led by German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer will travel to the Middle East next week to keep up the pressure on Arabs and Israelis to continue the search for peace, reports Simon Taylor. But no real progress is expected until after the Israeli general election in May

There is a certain symmetry about German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer meeting Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to discuss the future of Palestine.

Arafat was once shunned by the international community as the leader of a terrorist organisation. But now he is internationally recognised as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and a man who has turned his back on violent struggle to open the road to peace with the Israelis.

Fischer, who once led a section of the left famous for wearing Palestinian headscarves as a symbol of solidarity with the PLO's struggle for self-determination, is now foreign minister of one of the most pro-Israel governments in Europe. The charismatic Green has also swapped the street-fighting gear of his youth for the sober suit-and-tie uniform of the international diplomatic circuit.

Next week, Fischer will lead a delegation including External Relations Commissioner Manuel Marin and the EU's special envoy to the Middle East Miguel Angel Moratinos on a visit to Arab and Israeli leaders, to discuss where the stalled Middle East peace process goes next.

One issue will dominate their visits to both: whether Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat will declare a Palestinian state on 4 May.

The 1994 Oslo Peace Accord with the Israelis set this date as a deadline for settling key issues such as the status of Palestine. But talks on so-called "final-status" issues have been held up for two years, because the Palestinians have insisted that Israel must remove more troops from their territories before negotiations can start.

They claim that the absence of a deal by the time the Olso accord expires would give them the right to create an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

But diplomats are unanimous in believing that the move would be disastrous for the Palestinians.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that his government would respond by immediately annexing Palestinian territory, a move which would almost certainly quickly escalate into armed confrontation on the streets of the West Bank .

A breakdown in negotiations would also boost support for the anti-peace process movement in the first round of Israeli elections, due to be held in May.

That is why EU sources say that the point of the visit is to encourage the Palestinians not to take unilateral action on 4 May. "The overall view in the Union is that a unilateral decision would not serve the Palestinian cause," explained one official.

He acknowledged that the option of declaring a Palestinian state gave Arafat important leverage, but insisted the Palestinians should think hard about the best way to use that influence. "You can only use it once," he stressed.

EU officials believe that the Palestinians are more aware than anybody of the dangers of playing the last card in their hand.

They suggest that Arafat might demand certain political guarantees from the Union for the post-election period in return for postponing his plan to declare a state. "The trip could be useful in establishing who needs what in terms of political assurances," said one official.

Options being floated on the international gossip circuit include Arafat asking the US and the EU for a firm pledge to recognise a Palestinian state if he went ahead with the plan at a later date, possibly 31 December this year.

The Palestinian leader could then use the threat of international support to put pressure on Israel to begin talks on issues such as the status of a Palestinian entity and the future of Jerusalem. He could also insist on a freeze on the building of new settlements on occupied Palestinian land.

The attitudes of other political leaders in the region will also be crucial in the tense days running up to the 4 May deadline.

That is why Fischer's team will not only visit Jerusalem and the Palestinian territories, but also a range of other capitals which have a crucial role in the peace process, including Beirut, Damascus, Amman and Cairo. Egypt and Jordan have recently become increasingly negative about the chances of the peace talks succeeding and the EU delegation will seek to rekindle their commitment to the process.

Union officials freely admit that the visit will not produce any breakthrough in the peace process, which has been put on hold until after Israel's May election is over. "The Palestinians understand that the Wye accord is in the freezer," said one official.

But privately, they have expressed optimism that the results of the vote, which is not expected to produce a new government until June, could produce a better atmosphere for reaching a deal with Arafat.

One Middle East expert pointed to the formation of a new centrist party in Israel under former Defence Minister Yitzhak Mordechai as a positive development.

"Mordechai is more peace-process orientated and has even made suggestions about the Golan Heights," he said, referring to comments made by the former minister about giving back some land to Syria. The Heights have traditionally been regarded as crucial in ensuring Israel's safety from attack.

Given Mordechai's military record, he would also be less vulnerable than most to accusations that he was selling Israel out to its enemies.

Netanyahu, who was recently re-elected as leader of the right-wing Likud Party, has already branded the centrist party leaders as "leftists", meaning pro-Palestinian and soft on security.

But Fischer's visit will once again highlight the age-old question of what role the EU can play in greasing the wheels of the peace talks.

The Union cannot rival the political or military muscle the US can bring to the process, and is focusing its efforts on playing the role of honest broker in the talks. Its line has been to encourage the two sides to keep negotiating in the search for a mutually acceptable settlement, but its attempts to portray itself as a neutral intermediary are being hampered by accusations that it is taking the Palestinians' side and provoking Jerusalem unnecessarily.

The Israelis reacted angrily last week when Union governments condemned Jerusalem for failing to implement the Wye peace accord. Israel's ambassador to the EU, Harry Kney-Tal, said the Union should be careful about the message such statements sent to Jerusalem about the Union's role in the process. "Europe should be aware that it sends a signal of disengagement while its rhetoric is about engagement," he warned.

The ambassador also questioned the EU's motives in seeking to exclude Israel from its forthcoming research and development programme. "We are told that this is a manifestation of frustration with the peace process, but what is Europe trying to achieve? Is Europe trying to punish the scientific community ?" he asked EU envoy Moratinos, who believes that the Union can play a crucial role in the peace process, has argued against excluding the Israelis, describing the move as a "major error".

"If Europe has the vision and conviction, it can run a policy which benefits Israel and favours the Palestinians," he told a recent European Parliament meeting. "We must reinforce complementarity with the US and share responsibility."

Union officials reject suggestions that EU governments have failed to take an even-handed approach to Israel. "The Union has a balanced policy based on the implementation of United Nations resolutions," said one. "Otherwise, we could not be tough on Serbia or Iraq for failing to implement resolutions."

What is clear is that no one wants to risk any worsening of relations in the run-up to the Israeli elections which could block the path to peace after the polls.

"One should refrain closing down options. If people commit to rigid decisions, we may have problems in the post-election scenario," warned Kney-Tal.