Union must push forward a UN-led plan to stabilise

Date: 03/04/03

World opinion is against too much American influence in Iraq once war is over. Dana Spinant explores the possibilities for EU involvement in the aftermath

EU COUNTRIES must heal their rifts over Iraq and put forward a United Nations-led strategy to rebuild the country after the bombs stop. This is clearly the case if they are to help the US win the peace after winning the war.

The responsibility for the European Union is huge.

The potential fall-out from the battle in Iraq is that, if America continues its 'go-it-alone' strategy by keeping control of the country after toppling Saddam Hussein, its war against terrorism risks being seen as an imperialist agenda and not a world concern anymore.

Europe can avoid this by dragging the US back into the multilateral game at the UN - and by putting forward an alternative strategy for rebuilding Iraq based on its own principles and values.

Amid preparations in Washington for installing an American ruler in Baghdad - a former general - to ensure the transition to a stable government once Saddam is ousted, Iraqis and neighbouring countries are worried about a 'Made in the US' government. And, if the lessons of Afghanistan are anything to go by, stability can exist in Iraq only if the international community, all ethnic factions, and the country's neighbours endorse it.

However, America appears unwilling to apply those lessons. "In the history of recent international relations, there have been few contrasts so stark as that between the way American and Britain 'did' Afghanistan, and the way they are trying to 'do' Iraq," Ahmed Rashid wrote recently in the UK's Daily Telegraph.

Indeed, the US went to war against the Taliban alongside local opposition, the Northern Alliance, and a 20-country coalition under UN authority, and encouraged the UN at the conference in Bonn in December 2001 to take the lead in the formation of a new government.

At present, says Rashid, Iraqi opposition factions have been largely bypassed during the war, and none of the country's neighbours have been consulted over its future. The result is that the neighbouring Arab countries are continuing to prepare their own 'proxies' to take over power in Baghdad.

The fact is, there is no clear plan in Washington to involve Iraq's neighbours in the country's reconstruction.

Against this background, the European Union is the only entity with any hope of getting the Bush administration back to the UN to prepare the reconstruction of Iraq, thus ensuring its transition to a stable and more open government along a multilateral path. Although a poll by European Voice last week showed that only 50 support the EU taking a lead role in reconstruction, there seems to be general agreement that it must work to ensure that the UN takes centre stage.

Indeed, the EU should act as the multilateral conscience of the US and make sure that an American regime in Baghdad does not award multi-billion reconstruction projects exclusively to American and UK firms. Such awards would send out a message that Iraq has been conquered, not liberated, by the US.

In addition, the EU should put forward a plan for the post-Saddam era, based on its own values.

The German-based Bertelsmann Foundation proposed, in a paper issued last week, a European strategy for the reconstruction of Iraq - as an alternative to the US, UK and Spanish plan.

The key elements of this alternative strategy are a 'multinational task force' which would set up civil structures, the federal distribution of oil profit and the regional integration of the Arab state.

The advantage, the paper argues, is that the plan would be supported by the ethnic factions of Iraq and its neighbours.

Asserting that the EU should take an active role in the reconstruction of Iraq "at all economic and political levels", the foundation suggests a two-phase plan to get the battered country back on track.

In the short term, the strategy should seek to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe, while establishing a multi-national task force "under the auspices of the UN".

This "international high authority" should be set up "as early as possible to oversee the establishment of a transitional Iraqi government and for the organisation of elections for a constitutional assembly of Iraq, which would guarantee democratic rule, and prevent the re-establishment of an authoritarian regime".

The multinational task force - set up immediately after the fighting stops - should include domestic actors asearly as possible. In addition, the EU should facilitate Iraq's swift rejoining of the international community, the paper posits.

The task force should facilitate the establishment of an "inclusive and accountable political system". First and foremost, this would require the distribution of oil revenues between several centres of power in the country.

The EU should offer its experience in designing new political institutions (possibly federal) and support for reforms of the legal and law enforcement systems. It should also help to develop a civil society by supporting NGOs, the report says.

Moreover, as an effective solution to the Iraq problems require a comprehensive plan for the region, Europe should foster a regional security system which includes Iran and other Gulf states. Baghdad should also form a free-trade zone with its Arab neighbours Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and any future Palestinian state.

"The EU should support schemes for regional cooperation and offer its broad expertise" on the issue, as well as "link all types of assistance offered to regional partners to progress in democratisation and human rights", the paper adds.

Moreover, the Union should push for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as a prerequisite of bringing stability to the region. Europe must press for a regional conference modelled on the Madrid conference in 1991 to bring about a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The German foundation's plan offers solutions that encompass both the complex domestic problems of Iraq and those of the region as a whole. In addition, it fills a gaping void - as the United States has failed to present a comprehensive vision of a post-Saddam Iraq.

With the exception of the so-called domino theory, according to which the fall of Saddam would entail the end of other authoritarian regimes and spread democracy throughout the region (although it is not clear how), there is no concrete post-Saddam vision emanating from Washington.

This has led many of Iraq's neighbours to push for their own favourite faction to take over in Baghdad.

But the Bertelsmann proposal for a "European alternative strategy for Iraq", reasonable and cohesive as it is, has a major drawback: it depends on the United States' will to embrace such a comprehensive, multilateral view.

"The Union will not be able to realise this vision on its own", admits the paper. Rather, it should try to convince the US and other international players to endorse it.

Some European Commission officials call the foundation's plan unrealistic. "It is beautiful but naive," one said. "The European Union can sort out the problems of the Middle East? And convince the United States that its [EU's] beautiful plans of peace and regional integration are the right answer to the zone's problems? Dream on."

However, another Commission official believes that Europe has no choice other than to put down on paper a plan for the region, as nobody else will do it.

"The plan may contain a certain amount of wishful thinking, but the Union has to take the risk of being idealistic. Otherwise, what else can we do? Throw in the towel and say 'nothing can be done'?" he added.

Without doubt, the US should accept a United Nations-centred European strategy for the region.

This is not only because, without the UN and without the support of Iraq's neighbours, it cannot win the peace. But also because, although the US is now the only military superpower, the last weeks have seen the emergence of an alternative superpower ready to challenge America: world public opinion.

Washington has the weapons to topple Saddam, but has no instruments to bring peace to the region and to convince public opinion that the US should ultimately pull the strings in a post-Saddam Baghdad.

And without the support of this newly emerging superpower, Washington cannot defeat terrorism and protect its people.

Major feature. World opinion is against too much American influence in Iraq once war is over. Article explores the possibilities for EU involvement in the aftermath.