Serbia: Gloom and doom, continued

Date: 10/04/04

A troubled Balkan country, at risk from a nationalist revival

SERBS are feeling unloved. Last week the Americans suspended (some) bilateral aid, because of the Serbian government's failure to co-operate fully with the war-crimes tribunal in The Hague. The $26m involved is small - Serbia expects €1.1 billion ($1.3 billion) from other sources. And the money can be reinstated if Serbia hands over more suspects accused of war crimes, notably Ratko Mladic, the wartime commander of the Bosnian Serbs. But the suspension is rekindling nationalism.

Many Serbs note bitterly that NATO does not do much better than they do: it has just failed, yet again, to arrest General Mladic's former boss, Radovan Karadzic, in Bosnia. They resent the suspension of aid all the more because it comes just after the latest example of ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, the victims being Serbs driven from their homes in the Serbian province of Kosovo by ethnic Albanians under the noses of NATO troops.

Serb disgruntlement matters because, on June 13th, Serbia holds a presidential election in which the strongest candidate may be Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the extreme-nationalist Radical Party. Any action against Serbs wanted in The Hague will surely win Mr Nikolic more votes; his party is the biggest in Serbia's parliament.

Rumours in Belgrade suggest that Vojislav Kostunica, Serbia's prime minister, has been working to get General Mladic to give himself up. It is not only American cash that is at stake. Serbia will not now be admitted in June to NATO's waiting-room, the Partnership for Peace. And a new report from the European Commission identifies failure to co-operate with The Hague as a reason for Serbia's stalled progress towards starting the EU accession process.

For two months after its parliamentary election on December 28th, Serbia limped along without a government. Now it has a minority administration led by Mr Kostunica. Many analysts, noting that it is formed of parties with little in common, do not expect it to last long. But one pundit, Braca Grubacic, says that this might, paradoxically, work the other way. He says Serbia has, in effect, three autonomous governments, each taking care of its own business. Mr Kostunica's party looks after security and non-economic reforms; G17 Plus, a party that has evolved from a think-tank, deals with the economy; and the head of one of two smaller parties in government, Vuk Draskovic, once a fiery nationalist, is likely to be foreign minister.

Since the renewed violence in Kosovo, all parties have united in defence of the Serbs still there, arguing that the best way forward is to give them some form of territorial autonomy. But as Kosovo fades from the headlines, normal squabbling has resumed. The governing parties were divided over last week's decision to give financial help to the families of men in jail in The Hague. Yet on one thing, at least, all are agreed: the need to fend off the Radicals.

If Mr Nikolic becomes president, his powers will at least be limited. But Mr Draskovic declares that Mr Nikolic's election would lead to “a high level of isolation” for Serbia from the rest of the world. Mr Kostunica retorts that the West would be foolish to isolate the country, because this would harm the whole region, not just Serbia. But he does not believe Mr Nikolic will win. The hope is that the “democratic block” can unite behind the candidacy of Boris Tadic, now defence minister - though Mr Kostunica has yet to endorse him.

Mr Nikolic is toning down his party's language. “It is not extremism to defend your country and people,” he says. If NATO and the UN can't defend Serbs in Kosovo, he adds, they should let Serbia do the job. That will not happen - not least because it would mean war with Kosovo Albanians. But many voters like the nationalist message. Things “are not fantastically optimistic,” says Mr Grubacic.

A troubled Balkan country, at risk from a nationalist revival.