Call for restrictions to stop ‘flood’ of cheap workers

Date: 15/06/2000

By John Shelley

THE fear that cheap labour will flood into existing EU countries after enlargement is such a hot political potato that some are pushing for restrictions on the free movement of workers from new member states.

But the idea is anathema to the applicant countries. They see the right to work anywhere in the Union as one of the key fruits of the painful reform process needed to prepare for entry - not to mention a fundamental right of all EU members.

The conflict between these two positions guarantees that the issue of free movement

of workers will be one of the most difficult for enlargement negotiators to tackle. It is no accident that the launch of talks on this subject with the leading candidates was left until the last minute, only beginning in May.

Just how tricky it is likely to be to solve this dilemma became apparent when a deep rift opened up between Germany and Austria, on the one hand, and Spain, on the other, and threatened to make it impossible even to open the negotiations on time.

Berlin and Vienna wanted to include wording in the Union's initial negotiating position to underline the sensitivity of the topic for the two countries which would probably bear the brunt of any 'flood' of cheap workers after expansion.

But Madrid insisted that nothing which might open the door to the introduction of transition periods - a waiting time between accession and full movement rights - should be included in the text, although insiders suggested that it was merely playing for political points to be used to secure potential trade-offs in other areas further down the line.

The Spanish eventually backed down in the face of intense diplomatic pressure, a face-saving deal was struck and the talks were opened on time, just. Even fiercer arguments can be expected now that the accession countries - which, unlike Spain, actually have a lot to lose - have begun discussing this issue with Union negotiators.

Part of the problem is that no one really knows just what will happen when the EU opens its borders to new members: whether the flow of workers will be a flood, a trickle or nothing at all. But this does not stop each side playing hard for the factual high ground and claiming that the figures support their arguments.

Those who have no qualms about the impact of enlargement point to what happened when Spain and Portugal joined the Union in 1986. Similar fears that workers from these two poorer countries would rush over the border into France and beyond prompted member states to introduce a seven-year transition period. But this was scrapped early because, in the event, there was a net migration back to Spain and Portugal.

Those opposed to opening the borders dismiss this, arguing that the situations are not the same. Wage levels in southern France and Spain were not all that different at the time of accession, whereas workers in countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia currently earn an average of only 15-25% of their counterparts in neighbouring Austria, providing a much greater incentive for people to move.

A more authoritative picture is perhaps painted in an independent study recently published by the European Commission, although inevitably even this was loaded with ifs and buts. The report said if the first wave of enlargement took place in 2002 and the EU allowed full free movement from day one, there would be an immediate net migration of 335,000 people (35% of them workers) and 220,000 of them would go to Germany.

The Commission insists these figures should "allay the worst fears" over the impact of enlargement, but they are still significant enough to be potential vote losers in Germany and Austria.

Immigration is always used as a political football, and Spain's stubbornness in the run-up to the start of talks demonstrated that it is one which can be punted equally vigorously by both sides. There are, however, hopes that the restrained response to the publication of the Commission's figures in the German press marked the beginning of the maturer debate which will be necessary if a deal acceptable to both sides is ever to be reached.

The fear that cheap labour will flood into existing EU countries after enlargement is such a hot political potato that some are pushing for restrictions on the free movement of workers from new member states.