The Balkans. Waiting for the European train

The European Union gets more serious over possible membership for Serbia and the other countries of the western Balkans

RANKO KRIVOKAPIC, speaker of Montenegro's parliament, sums up the mood: “no more mananas!” He means that nothing will put Montenegro off its proposed referendum on independence next year. But he might be talking of the whole region. Almost 15 years after Yugoslavia began its descent into hell, there is a new determination, both on the ground and in Brussels, to ensure that the countries of the western Balkans head towards membership of the European Union, rather than drifting further into isolation and poverty.

The fashionable metaphor in the Balkans, as so often in the EU, employs trains. On April 12th Serbia and Montenegro were seen to have boarded a train for Brussels, when an EU feasibility study deemed their loose federation worthy to start accession talks. The next day the European Parliament cleared away one of the last obstacles to EU membership for Bulgaria and Romania, probably in 2007.

The feasibility study recognises that big reforms are under way in Serbia. It also rewards Serbia for its co-operation with the war-crimes tribunal in The Hague. The government of Vojislav Kostunica, which came to power in March 2004, saw the tribunal as a kangaroo court for Serbs. One year on, it has been bundling indictees to The Hague as fast as it can: over the past few months 13 Serbs and Bosnian Serbs have been sent for trial.

Yet even after such a favourable study, Serbian leaders have no illusions. Last month Croatia, years ahead of Serbia in preparations for the EU, ran into the buffers because of its failure to arrest General Ante Gotovina. It has been made clear to Serbia that all its indictees must also go for trial - including Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb wartime general.

For Serbia, war criminals may be the easy bit. Far more contentious is Kosovo. Technically, the UN-run province remains part of Serbia. But over 90% of Kosovo's 2m people are ethnic Albanians, who will settle for nothing short of independence. For six years Kosovo has lingered under UN control, as western policymakers hoped the problem would go away. Since the March 2004 riots by ethnic Albanians, it has been clear that it will not.

Over the next few months two reports on Kosovo are due to be presented to the UN Security Council. If they paint a generally positive picture, Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, will appoint a “status envoy” to shuttle between Belgrade and Pristina, talking over what is now being dubbed Kosovo's “future”, not its “final status”. The envoy will probably be a former politician well acquainted with the Balkans. One possibility is Giuliano Amato, a former Italian prime minister who chaired an international commission on the Balkans that released its report this week. The report advocates Kosovo's independence, to be achieved in four stages.

On Kosovo, at least, there are no longer big differences between Europe and America. Moreover, if prodded, Serbia and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians could probably agree on large parts of a future constitution for Kosovo. The problem, says a Kosovar politician and analyst, Veton Surroi, will lie in the first article, which will lay down whether Kosovo is an independent state or is part of Serbia. Since neither side will agree, American and EU diplomats are now mulling the idea of imposing a final status for Kosovo without the acquiescence of both parties.

Such an imposed settlement might include several elements. One is that independence would be conditional for years to come. Troops from NATO would stay on to guarantee security. The UN's job would probably be phased out, but a proconsular role could be created, resembling the job now held in Bosnia by Lord Ashdown, who has powers to sack local politicians. Serbian areas of Kosovo would be given a large degree of autonomy and Serbs would have the right to dual citizenship.

Judging by the past, some fear that Russia would act in the UN Security Council to block such an imposed deal. But maybe not, believe diplomats who have met the Russians to discuss Kosovo. They might go along with rather than oppose the plan - and risk their weakness being exposed if their objections are then ignored.

Bajram Kosumi, Kosovo's new prime minister, objects to any conditions being placed on Kosovo's independence, as indeed to any UN envoy discussing its status Kosovo with Belgrade. But if some conditions are a necessary price to pay for Kosovo's independence, he is unlikely to scupper the deal. Serbia's leaders say they will accept “more than autonomy but less than independence”. They also say that imposed independence for Kosovo might mean radical nationalists taking over in Belgrade - and creating instability for decades to come. Yet this need not happen if the deal is crafted to include compensations for Serbia: for instance, a fast track towards EU membership, or concessions on such matters as visas for foreign travel.

One idea is to impose a deal that can be presented differently in Belgrade and Pristina. To soften the blow of its independence, Montenegro has offered Serbia the idea of an “alliance of independent states”. Symbolically this might have value, but in practice it would be an empty shell. Yet slot in Kosovo, call it something else, make the benefits of association with the EU available - and the western Balkan train (with Bosnia and Albania hitched behind) might just chug to Brussels by 2014.

The European Union is suffering from enlargement fatigue, and fretting over the fate of its draft constitution. There is little enthusiasm for the entry of Romania and Bulgaria, or Turkey - let alone any of the western Balkans. But EU leaders are also slowly coming to realise that it is better to absorb and rehabilitate the Balkan countries than to leave them behind on the platform, as destitute troublemakers.

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