Spanish voters to take the lead in referenda race

Date: 17/02/05

Spanish voters go to the polls next Sunday, 20 February, in the first of the ten referenda to be held on the ratification of the Treaty on a Constitution for Europe. All the indications are that they will vote massively in favour - the only serious doubt being the level of turnout.

This could be disappointingly low if supporters of the opposition Popular Party (PP) decide to stay at home rather than to hand a further triumph to the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. The Socialists had been the first advocates of a referendum and though the former PP government of José María Aznar later took up the proposal with some enthusiasm and its leaders have since declared their support for a 'Yes' vote, they have been distinctly lukewarm in the campaign.

They certainly do not want the constitution to be defeated, but it would serve their party purposes well if the result proved to be somewhat less than overwhelming.

Outside Spain, the result is likely to influence the debate in the other member states. Fifteen of them, including Belgium, which originally proposed to have a referendum, have decided to leave the decisions to their parliaments, three of which - Lithuania, Hungary and Slovenia - have already ratified the treaty with large majorities.

The situation in the ten countries choosing a referendum is shown in the table below. The prospects for ratification in all member states have been analysed in a recent survey undertaken by the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN).

Its principal finding is that it is "likely that the constitution will be ratified in 22 of the 25 member states, with only the Czech Republic and Poland rated as 'unsure' and the United Kingdom as 'rather unlikely'". This is a more optimistic assessment than had been made by some other observers, who had sensed a risk of defeat in other countries holding referenda, notably the Netherlands and France.

While recognising that experience has shown that referenda are inherently unpredictable, the EPIN researchers nevertheless believe, largely but not exclusively on the basis of opinion poll evidence, that the prospects for success in both these countries have greatly improved.

They also believe that - more likely than not - both Poland and the Czech Republic will finish up voting in favour. Indeed, they assert that the process will actually be aided by holding referenda, as in both countries there would be added difficulties in securing a majority in parliament. In Poland a two-thirds majority and in the Czech Republic 60% are necessary for the parliamentary ratification of treaties.

The opposite is clearly the case, as Britain is concerned, where there is likely to be a substantial parliamentary majority in favour (unless the Tories unexpectedly win the general election), but where opinion polls have - until very recently - shown a consistent 2-to-1 vote against.

Within the last month, since the British government introduced its Referendum Bill to the House of Commons, showing the question to be included on the ballot paper, there have been two polls showing very different results - one a tie between the 'yeses' and the 'noes' and the other a slight majority for the 'yeses'.

It is unclear whether this reflects a sudden swing in favour, or whether the wording of the ballot paper question, which was included in these two polls, produced a biased result, which does not accurately reflect public feeling. Possibly both factors are present.

But most observers continue to believe that Tony Blair (or his possible successor) will face an uphill struggle to convince British voters of the merits of the constitution in the face of a predominantly Eurosceptic press and deliberate misrepresentation by the opposition Conservative Party.

This is the background for a pamphlet by Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, to be published later this month (see Page 21). Entitled 'What Happens if Britain Votes No?', it sets out ten different scenarios, ranging from the outright expulsion of the UK from the EU, to the establishment of three different versions of a 'core' Europe, each effectively under the aegis of France and Germany.

Grant has no doubt that each of the ten scenarios would be a worse option for Britain, for Europe and even for the United States, than would British acceptance of the constitutional treaty. Few people reading his words can doubt the enormity of the gamble which Blair took in deciding to embark on a referendum for which there was no necessity.

Timetable for referenda

Country Probable date Yes/No trend*

Spain 20 February 2005 70/30

The Netherlands June or September 2005 55/45

France June 2005 55/45

Luxembourg 10 July 2005 75/25

Denmark Autumn 2005 60/40

Portugal Uncertain, 2006 75/25

Poland Autumn 2005/Spring 2006 55/45

Ireland 2006 60/40

UK March-June 2006 45/55

Czech Republic Uncertain, June 2006 60/40

• *Current opinion polls

Source: Initiative & Referendum Institute Europe, February 2005

• Dick Leonard is a freelance journalist based in Brussels and former associate editor of The Economist.

Analytical feature anticipating the Spanish referendum on the ratification of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe on 20 February 2005 and the influence the outcome may have on the referenda in other EU Member States.