Eurosceptics set to play key role in next Swedish government no matter who wins

Date: 10/09/1998

The ruling Social Democrats seem to be losing their grip on the reins of power as this month's general election approaches. Emily von Sydow reports on the swing to the opposition parties

ONLY two things seems certain about the outcome of the impending general election in Sweden: it will be a narrow victory and the situation will be complicated.

Irrespective of whether the left or right wins a majority, the new government, whoever is successful, will have to rely on Eurosceptics to keep it in power.

The current Social Democratic government's popularity has waned, despite the country's strong economic performance, and it faces an uphill struggle to lift its support over the 'magical' 40&percent; mark.

Support for the party has rarely dipped below this key psychological mark in the opinion polls and indeed, under former leader Ingvar Carlsson, its members were worried if their popularity edged under 50&percent;. With the election approaching on 20 September, the party's share of the vote is still stuck between 35&percent; and 39&percent;.

Meanwhile, the former Communists are steadily gaining ground and have now passed the 10&percent; barrier. The renamed Left Party has been designated by Prime Minister Göran Persson as his chosen partner, along with the Greens, if they make it over the minimum 4&percent; threshold needed to enter parliament.

Both the Left Party and the Greens are decidedly anti-European and have declared that their aim is for Sweden to withdraw from the EU altogether if the public votes against joining the single currency zone in a future referendum on the issue.

The opposition is dominated by Carl Bildt's Moderate Party, which enjoys the support of about one quarter of the country's voters. It would have to rely on support from its former government partners, such as the Liberals, the Christian Democrats and the Centre Party to form a coalition. Only together could they edge over the required 48&percent; mark.

The Christian Demo-crats and the Centre Party are both opposed to Sweden joining monetary union, at least for the foreseeable future; the former for pragmatic reasons, the latter because they are straightforward nationalists.

But many within the Moderate Party claim that their scepticism is irrelevant since it is the people, and not politicians, who will decide whether to sign up to the euro or not when the issue is put to a vote.

At the start of the election campaign, the Social Democrats' strategy was to stick to familiar national issues and lean on their indisputable economic successes, but the global financial crisis has forced unwelcome topics on to the agenda.

The attack on the krona and stock prices is of more than usual interest to the electorate since 51&percent; of them are shareholders either directly or via pensions or other funds.

Persson and his Finance Minister Erik Åsbrink complain that the markets have mistaken Sweden for Norway, where plummeting oil prices, resurgent inflation and soaring interest rates have hit the currency. Indeed, Persson is fond of raising the spectre of Norway's minority government, where the prime minister is on extended sick leave suffering from depression, as a warning of what might happen to Sweden if the electorate votes in line with recent opinion polls.

But this threat cuts both ways. Reformist Social Democrat voters fear the prospect of a government at the mercy of former Communists and the Greens because, although Sweden has developed an image in Brussels as the odd man out in the Union club, a government spokesman is eager to point out that Stockholm “actually follows the mainstream” on most issues.

“We did not have a referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty; it was passed in the parliament with a comfortable majority,” points out Jan Strøm. “We don't want to make holes in the acquis communautaire.”

Persson likes to suggest that he is working, along with UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to develop a 'third way' for the EU. This represents a middle path between national and supranational, exemplified by the national action plans for employment which use peer pressure review rather than legislation to steer policy.

Sweden prides itself on being one of the prime motors of EU environmental policy and believes it was instrumental in ensuring that the Cardiff summit in June endorsed 'sustainable development' as a bench-mark against which all Union policy initiatives must be judged.

But these 'mainstreaming' days may pass into history if the Social Democrats form a government with the support of the Left and the Greens.

On the right, former EU envoy to Bosnia Bildt has retained a popularity among Swedes which extends well beyond his own party sympathisers. One recent opinion poll found that 53&percent; of voters would prefer him as prime minister while, at the same time, Persson's popularity is running at an unusually low level for a Social Democrat premier.

Bildt's recent call for a “national and European stability pact” - a term borrowed from the monetary union itself - to establish a timetable for when and how Sweden could sign up to the single currency is designed partly to embarrass the Social Democrats further.

Whoever wins, there will be continuity on certain key issues: support for early enlargement of the Union into eastern and central Europe, strengthening the role of national parliaments within the EU and rigorous control of the EU budget.

The Social Democrats, who have traditionally held a very strong position in the national parliament, claim to feel the transfer of power from the Riksdagen to Brussels intensely.

The government initially pressed for a big-bang opening of negotiations with all the countries applying for EU membership as soon as possible.

However, since it has become clear that only six are set for fast-track talks, its main concern now is to make all the candidates feel they are not being left out of the process, especially those still kicking their heels in the waiting room.

Stockholm believes that making these outsiders feel included is vital if stability and democracy are to be protected in Europe.

Enlargement also means reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, which gobbles up far too large a slice of the EU's resources, according to the Swedes.

Moderate Party member Lars Tobisson, vice-chairman of the national parliament's EU delegation, also sees enlargement as an ideal opportunity to reform the system for funding run-down regions.

He wants the finance to be redirected completely to the new members. “This means less money for the poorer members of the European Union, including us,” he says. “But it is necessary.”

Swedish gross domestic product per capita is below that of Ireland, a country which continues to benefit from special 'cohesion' funding. Swedish politicians, therefore, believe they have a case for a lower net contribution to the EU's 85-billion-ecu annual budget.

Persson has gone along with the campaign by Germany and the Netherlands, where winning back Brussels money is a big issue, but the subject does not attract much attention in Sweden.

Liberal MEP Hadar Cars points out that Sweden has gained billions of ecu from EU membership and likewise lost billions already from not participating in EMU.

He points out that Swedish foreign debt amounts to 37 billion ecu so that, when the krona dropped in reaction to the Russian and Norwegian crises, the cost of servicing the debt swelled by nearly 2 billion ecu - far more than any net contribution to the Union.

None of this is helping to dispel the growing cynicism among the electorate. The number of first-timer voters who will go to the polls later this month is unusually high, prompting those contesting the elections to go to extraordinary lengths to win their votes.

A quarter of these 400,000 voters recently received an interesting videotape in the mail. It opens with a steamy bedroom scene, after which the couple reminisce about their “first time”. It concludes with the message: “Greetings from the Social Democrats. Go and vote on 20 September”.

A large number of these electors find this right less exciting to exercise. The newspapers are full of articles about first-timers complaining that none of the parties is worthy of their support.