European elections beauty contest to be launched – but will people bother to vote?

Date: 22/04/04

THE starting pistol will sound this weekend on the campaign trail for June's historic elections to the European Parliament, described by its President Pat Cox as "the first real" European elections.

Despite being a landmark poll - the first in which people of the new mainly former communist states will vote to elect MEPs - there is widespread concern that voter participation may fall below the historic-low level of 49% recorded in the last European elections in 1999.

Indeed, voter turnout will be the key plank of the campaign for the Party of European Socialists when it publishes its election manifesto in Brussels this Saturday (24 April), the last of Parliament's main political groups to do so.

When you consider that, in 2002, more British people, 23 million, voted in the third series of the hit reality TV show, Big Brother, than had bothered to turn up for the European election three years earlier (when a meagre 11 million went to the polls), it is hardly surprising the prospect of another embarrassing turnout is causing much hand-wringing among Brussels' political elite.

The irony is that falling turnout has happened despite a steady increase in the Parliament's power.

If it could once have been dismissed as an irrelevant talking shop, this is no longer so.

MEPs now have the opportunity to amend or reject the vast majority of EU legislation.

They can sack the European Commission - and the threat to do so made the Jacques Santer team resign en masse in 1999 - have considerable control over the EU budget and can vet, as they did earlier this month, commissioners before they are appointed.

So, what are the policies the big four political groups will employ to woo voters into polling stations on 10-13 June?

The Socialists (PES) campaigning on the slogan "Growing Stronger Together", are highlighting five main themes: boosting EU economic growth; creating more, and better, jobs; fighting poverty; bringing the EU closer to its citizens, and; migration and social integration.

The agenda the party will adopt at its congress this weekend also calls for reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, more efficient use of the EU budget and removing barriers that prevent women from entering labour markets.

"Above all," says PES spokesman Tony Robinson, "we are appealing to people to turn out and vote. With the EU about to expand, this is a unique opportunity for Europeans to shape the continent's future."

Socialists currently have 175 seats in Parliament but are confident of breaking through the 200-seat barrier in June, a feat they will comfortably achieve, according to a recent study by the London School of Economics (LSE).

The unexpected victory for the Socialists in the Spanish general election on 14 March will further boost the party's hopes of electoral success in June.

The only certainty for the Socialists, though, is that its Parliamentary group will be led by a new chairman after the election: Spaniard Enrique Barón Crespo is stepping down with German Martin Schulz the front-runner to replace him.

The assembly's biggest political group, the European People's Party (EPP-ED) launched its manifesto in February, under the less-than-eye-catching slogan "Your Majority in Europe".

The LSE study predicts that the 232-strong EPP-ED will again emerge as the largest political group, garnering 285 of the Parliament's 732 seats, or 39%. The EPP will campaign on a traditional platform, with job creation "at the core" of its economic and social policy.

But another key plank is a pledge to further reduce trade barriers, liberalize markets and press for reform of health and pension systems.

Illegal immigration should be "nipped in the bud", the post of a European public prosecutor should be created, and, on terrorism, it calls for more powers for Europol, the EU's police agency.

Arguably, more interest, though, will centre on events in the UK, where Conservative party leader Michael Howard is seeking to use the election as an unofficial referendum on plans for an EU constitution, although Prime Minister Tony Blair appears to have caved into pressure to hold an official vote in the future.

Although it was not included in the EPP-ED's electoral manifesto, Turkey is likely to be one of the most controversial subjects in the party's rallies, in particular in France and Germany. The German Christian Democrats (CDU), which advocate Ankara should be offered a special partnership with the EU, but not membership, see the European polls as an indirect vote on Turkey's EU accession bid.

In France, President Jacques Chirac's ruling UMP party (Union for a Popular Movement) has recently poured cold water on Ankara's hopes to join the EU, suggesting it should become closely associated with the Union - but not a full member.

As for the Parliament's third group, the Liberal Democrats (ELDR) were first out of the blocks with their manifesto, launching it in November. Top of their agenda are jobs, the environment and crime, issues which, no doubt, will be fully aired by high-profile Liberals such as Guy Verhofstadt and Matti Vanhanen, prime ministers of Belgium and Finland respectively, at an election rally on 29 April. Liberals - election slogan: "Free Europe's Potential" - believe their plans, including the completion of the single market and bringing justice and home affairs matters within the normal legislative procedure of the EU, with more powers for Parliament, will be crucial in the battle for votes.

Some of the ELDR's environment-related concerns - animal welfare, climate change and the like - are, of course, shared by another of the assembly's main groups, the Greens, who, according to the LSE, will see its share of the vote fall from 7% in 1999 to 5.5% this time round.

Under the slogan "You Decide" and led by the charismatic Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the group admits it has much electoral ground to make up in the EU's new member states. But it still intends to campaign on traditional issues such as consumer protection, GMOs and increased gender equality.

Green parties from 25 countries have joined forces under a common platform to contest this sixth poll since the first direct elections were held in 1979.

But despite the best efforts of most of the political parties, this year's campaign is still likely to be dominated by domestic issues in member states, as opposed to transnational European debates. "There is a definite trend for elections to the European Parliament to be fought on what you might call European issues," Ben Crum, of the Brussels-based think-tank, Centre for European Policy Studies, said. "In particular, I think the big European issue this time round could be the election of a president to the European Commission.

"The EPP has, of course, made it clear the next president must come from the party with the biggest majority after the election. How much they will push this as an election issue remains to be seen. Of course, if the parties named their preferred candidates ahead of the election that would help galvanize media attention."

But Crum believes the trend of national politics dominating the European polls' campaign will not be reversed, this time around: "However, I still think this campaign will, as in previous elections, be fought on mostly national issues. It is still too early to say that 2004 will be the big breakthrough year for a truly European campaign."

The campaign for the June 2004 elections to the European Parliament has begun, but there is widespread concern that the turnout will fall below the 49% level of turnout recorded in the 1999 European elections.

ESO: In Focus: European Parliament Election, June 2004, March 2004 http://www.europeansources.info/record/european-parliament-election-10-13-june-2004-results-and-analysis/

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