Italian politics. A prodigal returns

The old Commission president will be welcomed by many compatriots

IT MAY surprise folk in Brussels, but there is a place where they can't wait for Romano Prodi to show his face - the leftist camp in his native Italy. Once the current shenanigans over the European Commission's leadership are over, the cheery professor will head off for his homeland as a less-than-brilliant bureaucrat - and arrive a returning hero.

To Italians fed up with the right-wing coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi, Mr Prodi's shortcomings are secondary. They recall him as the only man to have defeated the media tycoon-turned-prime minister on the hustings. They hope he can repeat the triumph he achieved in 1996 when he led his “Olive Tree” alliance to a general-election victory.

This week these hopes rose. Seven by-elections were held, to fill seats in the Italian legislature whose holders had stepped onwards to the European Parliament; to the delight of his foes, Mr Berlusconi's coalition lost everywhere.

Three seats changed hands, including one in Milan that had been occupied by Umberto Bossi, the head of the Northern League. That was a dismal result for a party, and government, that earlier this month satisfied an historic demand of the northern electorate by getting through parliament a bill offering a fair measure of decentralisation. The problem for Mr Berlusconi and his allies is that most of their voters no longer want a federal Italy as much as they want a prosperous one. Economically, Italy is lagging. In the second quarter of 2004, GDP rose 1.2% year-on-year, against 2% for the whole euro zone.

Mr Berlusconi's failure to revive the economy is the Achilles heel at which Mr Prodi will aim between now and the next general election, due in 2006 at the latest. But his greatest difficulty will be keeping his allies in line. The Italian left is even more fractured than the right. Its two biggest parties - the Democrats of the Left, which grew out of the old communist movement, and the oddly-named Margherita (Daisy) party, largely made up of liberal Catholics like Mr Prodi - have agreed to nestle under the spreading Olive Tree.

But there are up to six other parties whose votes Mr Prodi may need - and they are yet to commit themselves fully. Some espouse views very different from his. Two are Marxist.

The leaders of all these groups are used to speaking their minds and unused to being silenced. Even the head of the Daisy party, Francesco Rutelli, was bold enough last month to snap the fragile chain of leftist unity and pick a fight with the professor. Mr Prodi proposes to call for a series of “primaries” next February in which, like a fairground boxer, he hopes to see off any rivals and confirm his leadership. But this exercise could expose differences, not heal them.

So far, his only likely challenger is Fausto Bertinotti, leader of the hard-left Refounded Communists, which won 5% at the last general election and could hold the key to a left-wing victory. Mr Bertinotti wants a proper contest. With so much ferment in the leftist camp, Mr Prodi may long for the relative calm and sanity of Brussels.