Battle continues for back-markers in accession race

Date: 17/07/1997

By Mark Turner

ROUND two of the battle over the pace of EU enlargement began in earnest this week, even before the European Commission had revealed the results of round one.

The news that the Commission was recommending the start of accession talks with just five central and eastern European applicants early next year came as no surprise after a week of barely concealed infighting within the institution's headquarters.

Estonia and Slovenia joined the three political favourites - the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland - in earning the crucial conclusion: “The Commission recommends that negotiations for accession should be opened.”

The losers in this particular phase of the enlargement saga - Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria - were told that the Commission would advise existing member states to open negotiations with them as soon as they had made “sufficient progress in satisfying the conditions of membership defined by the European Council in Copenhagen”.

This referred to the basic requirements for EU entry laid down by Union leaders at their June 1993 summit, when they declared that viable candidates should have a functioning market economy, abide by democratic principles and the rule of law, and be able to apply EU internal market rules.

Each avis nominally provided an unbiased assessment of the applicants' success in reaching those standards, and judged their readiness for talks on those criteria. But even the countries that passed the Commission test are far from fully up to speed.

In a clear warning that further efforts will be needed, the report stated: “These countries could be in a position to satisfy all the conditions of membership in the medium term,” but only “if they maintain and strongly sustain their preparation efforts”.

As a consequence, the final judgement was as much opinion as hard fact. There is far more of a continuum from the best to worse aspirant countries than the conclusions might suggest, and the dividing line could well be contested by both the countries concerned and their sponsors.

Even before the official release of the 'Agenda 2000' report, Latvian Foreign Ministry State Secretary Maris Riekstinsh was attempting to reverse the Commission's decision, promising to “continue talks with our friends to get what we think is the best solution for the Baltic states” - in other words, early accession talks.

Romanian Premier Victor Ciorbea weighed into the attack immediately after the Commission's verdict had been confirmed, vowing to continue his country's political and diplomatic fight until EU leaders take a final decision on the short list in December.

“Expansion in waves is justified in the case of NATO but it is not justified for EU enlargement, which is a process of continuous integration,” he insisted.

Unfortunately for those who missed the grade, the Commission's concluding 'yes' or 'no' will probably have a greater influence on the applicants' accession hopes than anything else.

Above all, it sets the agenda for the fierce debate which will begin between national governments when foreign ministers are officially presented with the report at a meeting next Tuesday (22 July).

Although Greek accession in 1981 proved that a negative opinion from the European Commission by no means precludes membership, it will be difficult for EU capitals to push their favourites across the psychological dividing line.

It will be even harder for governments to elbow any of the top five candidates off the list.

Nonetheless, it is clear that existing member states do not intend to be dictated to by the Commission - or anyone else.

Despite Luxembourg's efforts to persuade member states to keep quiet about their particular preferences, Danish Foreign Minister Niels Helveg Petersen this week used a Latvian newspaper interview to press the case for starting negotiations with all the applicants at the same time.

“The Danish stance since the very beginning has been very firm: talks should begin with all candidate states,” he said.

In sharp contrast, Luxembourg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker publicly advocated negotiating with only five applicants when his country took over the EU presidency this month.

The decision to include Cyprus in the next round of enlargement talks was inevitable following a favourable Commission avis in 1993.

However, Turkish Deputy Premier Bullet Ecevit warned this week that “any steps taken in connection with Cyprus which we do not accept will be more than met by our own steps”, adding that this could include integrating northern Cyprus into Turkey.