Catalonia’s inconclusive election: After Pujol

Date: 22/11/03

Left-wing nationalists advance, but not (yet) to independence

“CATALONIA is passing through its worst moment in its relationship with Madrid.” That was Jordi Pujol's assessment as he prepared to leave after 23 years as premier of Spain's richest region. The voting in the election on November 16th suggests that he may be right. In their first election without Mr Pujol, the nationalist Convergence and Union (CiU) finished first, again. But the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), a left-wing pro-independence party, almost doubled its vote.

Neither the CiU nor the second-placed Socialists now have a majority, leaving the balance of power in the hands of the ERC leader, Josep Llus Carod-Rovira. His prompt declamation “Long live free Catalonia!” has put the wind up Madrid. Is Catalonia heading for independence?

The answer is probably no. All political parties except the People's Party, run by Spain's prime minister, José María Aznar, want more autonomy for the region. But there is little demand for independence. The result heralds a post-Pujol era that ends the 20-year hegemony of the region's two leading parties. The CiU dropped from 56 seats in 1999 to 46 in the 135-seat assembly; the Socialists from 52 to 42; while the ERC advanced from 12 to 23.

The CiU was tainted both by a reputation for political jobbery and by its pacts with Mr Aznar's PP. Meanwhile, the strategy of Pasqual Maragall, former mayor of Barcelona and the regional Socialist leader, of donning Catalan nationalists' clothes backfired. When the usual horse-trading ends, the most likely outcome will be a nationalist CiU-ERC coalition, though the PP is putting pressure on the CiU to join forces with the Socialists to stop Catalan nationalism becoming more radical.

Whatever the final line-up, there is a fear in Madrid that, without the pragmatism and moderating hand of Mr Pujol, Catalan nationalism might yet go the way of its Basque counterpart. There is no doubt that the Catalan result will blight Mr Aznar's attempts to face down demands from Spain's devolved regions for still more autonomy. A plan by the Basque regional government to hold a referendum on whether Basques should have the right to self-determination is testing his patience. “There is now a solid nationalist majority in the parliament, and, take note, this will allow us to forge ahead with plans to change the statute [to gain more autonomy],” said Mr Pujol's successor as CiU leader, Artur Mas.

Yet the new bogeyman, Mr Carod-Rovira, seems a reasonable enough chap. An ardent lover of literature, he is the son of a Franco-era policeman and a Catalan mother, who has the rare distinction of having a pornographic film, “Journeys in Catalonia”, dedicated to him. He founded his first political party when he was just 12. At 21, he was imprisoned for political activities. Besides calling for a “government of national unity”, his other demand is that the CiU pledge not to form any more pacts with the PP. That could be important after next March's general election.

Amid this upheaval, modern Catalonia's “founding father”, Mr Pujol, has quietly stepped down. His credentials as the icon of his “country” are now unchallengeable. He went to jail for opposing Franco. Later he drew Catalan nationalists peacefully into mainstream Spanish politics and championed the revival of the Catalan language. Yet he is a skilfully ambiguous nationalist who has ruled out secession. Although he provided vital backing to national governments in Madrid (he supported the 1993-96 Socialist government of Felipe González before backing Mr Aznar), he refused to send a deputy to the capital. His departure has opened the way for a more politically plural and volatile Catalonia, one that Madrid will have to learn to court.