Slovakia: fragile reformer

Date: 08/11/03

A model of a modern prime minister

IF FOREIGNERS could choose prime ministers, Mikulas Dzurinda would probably be running Slovakia for the rest of his life. Since first taking charge in 1998 he has turned what was once among the more backward countries of central Europe into a model of reform, a regional leader in economic growth and a magnet for foreign investment.

The reforms continue. The Slovak parliament has just voted to cut taxes on personal incomes and corporate profits to a single flat rate of 19% next year. It has also approved a new law to raise the statutory retirement age and create privately managed personal-pension accounts, into which workers will pay half their compulsory contributions. The resultant shortfall in the pay-as-you-go state pension scheme will be covered for a few years by privatisation revenues.

Yet though foreigners may cheer, Slovak voters are unimpressed. Recently they ranked Mr Dzurinda as one of their least trusted politicians, with an approval rating of just 5%. They gave top marks to Robert Fico, a left-leaning opposition leader, whose approval rating was five times as high. Mr Dzurinda might retort that unpopularity is the fate of all reformers. Slovaks dislike the raising of the retirement age, even though a greying population makes it essential. They dislike even more the small health-care charges that the government introduced in June, to clear the debts of the hospital system.

Smart political manoeuvring, not popularity, has kept Mr Dzurinda ahead. Twice he has claimed the prime minister's job (after elections in 1998, and again last year) by knitting together complex coalitions that have shut more popular rivals out of power. The present coalition comprises Mr Dzurinda's party, the SDKU; the Christian Democrats; a new liberal party, ANO; and the SMK, a party for Slovakia's ethnic Hungarians. But the worry is that Mr Dzurinda may be losing his wizardry at managing coalitions. An emotive squabble over abortion-law reform, pitting the Christian Democrats against ANO, refuses to die down. A power struggle has led three ANO members to defect, costing the coalition its assured majority in a parliament that is now evenly divided.

Mr Dzurinda's judgment has also been called into question by his insistence on sacking a top security official, Jan Mojzis, for no good reason. When the defence minister, Ivan Simko, objected, Mr Dzurinda sacked him too, and also ousted him as vice-chairman of the SDKU. According to Mr Mojzis, Mr Dzurinda wanted a particular company to win a contract for installing a government computer system, but Mr Mojzis refused to give the company the necessary security clearance. Whatever the truth, the affair has left the prime minister looking petulant at best, sleaze-tainted at worst.

Mr Dzurinda can still find parliamentary majorities for specific bills, as he did for the tax and pension laws. But the initiative lies increasingly with Mr Fico, who is clever, cynical, and ambitious. Lately he has been making eyes at Mr Simko, who may turn against Mr Dzurinda when he has worked out the most devastating way of doing so. One possibility is that Mr Fico will urge Mr Simko to run in next April's presidential election. By doing so, Mr Simko would take votes from the SDKU's official candidate, Eduard Kukan, the foreign minister. He might split the coalition, winning support from the SMK, which does not greatly like Mr Kukan. With Mr Fico's backing, Mr Simko could then end up as president. Even the redoubtable Mr Dzurinda would find it hard to survive so complex a humiliation.