Spain and the Basques. Cries and whispers

Date: 11/03/06

Forecasts of an ETA ceasefire may yet prove premature

IT IS the eternal Spanish rumour. But this time it may really come true. Several Spanish newspapers have confidently declared that ETA, the Basque terrorist group, is poised to call a ceasefire, bringing to an end 38 years of violence that has claimed over 800 lives. The prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is among those who seem to think that something may happen. Spain is close to "the beginning of the end" of ETA, he declared last month. The talk is of a ceasefire by Easter.

Mr Zapatero has the backing of the Spanish parliament to open talks with ETA if it shows a "clear will" to give up violence. He also, however, has a problem. The opposition People's Party refuses to sanction any negotiations with ETA or anybody who represents it. It says a weakened ETA, which has killed nobody for over two years, must be forced to surrender unconditionally. "It should be asphyxiated," sums up the party spokesman, Gabriel Elorriaga.

Traditionally, government and opposition have walked in step when confronting ETA. But this cross-party front is now in tatters, and that could stymie attempts to create a peace process. As other countries have found, any such process will be complex and long--so a People's Party government might, one day, have to take it on. "I don't think one party can do it alone," says Kepa Aulestia, a Basque commentator.

There is no sign of the parties patching up their differences. Instead, the arguing is getting nastier. The People's Party is being "vile" and "cowardly", says the Socialist Party secretary, Jose Blanco. The Socialists are "spitting" in the faces of terrorist victims, retorts the People's Party's parliamentary spokesman, Eduardo Zaplana. Both sides use ETA's victims, who are also divided on what should happen next, as pawns in their political war.

Each party blames the other for the split. The People's Party claims that Mr Zapatero has broken the consensus and is trying to drag it somewhere it cannot go. The government points to the peace process in Northern Ireland, in which Britain's Conservative and Labour Parties both played their part. Mr Zapatero claims he was a loyal opposition leader who backed the policies of the former People's Party prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar. Now he wants the favour returned.

Could Mr Zapatero go ahead without the People's Party? He seems to think that he can, so long as ETA persuades most Spaniards that it is ready to give up the fight once and for all. He will seek legitimacy for whatever he does in parliament, where the People's Party looks increasingly lonely in its opposition.

The unknown quantity in the calculation is ETA itself. So far, its reply to the ceasefire rumours has been to plant more bombs--four more were found near roads this week. Is this just a last-minute effort to exert pressure before declaring a ceasefire? Old hands remember that previous rumours of talks with ETA saw a similar strategy of "corpses on the table". Yet, as the Basque Socialist leader, Patxi Lopez, told El Mundo last week, "one single death in an ETA attack would bring this peace process to an end."

Forecasts of an ETA ceasefire may yet prove premature