Croatia’s new coalition will have to move swiftly on reform

Date: 20/01/2000

By Simon Coss

AS FAR as first impressions go, the one made by Croatia's new government appears to be almost perfect.

Praise for the new regime elected by a crushing majority earlier this month has been almost universal. Politicians from across the EU have rushed to congratulate the alliance of Social Democrats (SDP) and Social Liberal (HSLS) who picked up 70% of the votes in the poll, trouncing the incumbent regime run by the late President Franjo Tudjman's ultra nationalist Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten said the results showed that the Croatian people wanted their country to "take its rightful place in the family of European democracies and develop closer relations with the European Union". EU foreign supremo Javier Solana echoed these sentiments, saying that he was confident that the future polices of Croatia would be "clearly orientated towards Europe and European values".

Some have warned that such gushing enthusiasm for a coalition which has not even had time to form a government yet (most experts say a new administration will not be in place until some time next month) is somewhat premature.

But the EU's political leaders have decided to do everything they can to encourage the country's newly-elected reformers, clearly convinced that without a democratic and pro-European Croatia 'on side', the international community's efforts to build a lasting peace in the Balkans will come to nothing.

The most recent example of this new charm offensive was European Commission President Romano Prodi's official visit to Zagreb late last week, where he once again praised the choice made by the Croatian electorate. The Commission says it is planning to organise a similar visit by Patten and is considering 'upgrading' its mission in Zagreb.

But while EU leaders have expressed their delight at the latest developments in Croatia, experts warn that unless the new regime in Zagreb swiftly starts backing up its promises of reform with concrete action, relations could cool very rapidly.

In particular, the Union wants the new government to begin cooperating with the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague over investigations into the 1995 'Flash' and 'Storm' operations, during which the Croatian army reclaimed territory held by Serb troops and allegedly carried out a number of massacres.

Tudjman consistently refused to let the court look into both affairs and his hardline stance is one of the main reasons why Croatia has been shunned by the international community for most of the past five years. It was also the argument put forward by the EU to justify its decision when it suspended all but the most urgent humanitarian aid to the country.

But despite the fact that the new Croatian government was elected with a clear mandate for change, it will find it very hard to convince the electorate to accept a new policy on Flash and Storm.

Most citizens feel that the operations were justified and matters are further complicated by the fact that many of the houses occupied by Serbs before the military action have since been taken over by Croat families.

But while EU experts recognise that allowing the international tribunal to investigate the controversial campaigns may prove difficult for the new regime, they insist that funds for Croatia cannot be unfrozen until the issue is resolved.

In other areas, however, analysts believe that the new regime will be able to deliver much needed reforms relatively swiftly. The incoming alliance has already said, for example, that it intends to propose legislation which would ban government interference in the country's broadcast media - the main source of news for 80% of the population. The Commission says it sees no reason why this particular reform should not be launched within a matter of months.

EU officials also hope that the arrival of a new set of politicians in Croatia's various ministries will put an end to the endemic corruption which has made a small number of government cronies very rich and crippled what used to be one of eastern Europe's most robust economies.

The Commission also says it is not overly concerned about next week's presidential elections in Croatia, sparked by Tudjman's death on 10 December.

Officials maintain that even though one of the two leading contenders, Mate Granic, is a member of the HDZ, his election as head of state would not pose any particular problems for the Union. "He is a moderate and a pro-European," explained one official.

But the latest polls indicate that, in any case, the possibility of Croatia having an HDZ president and an alliance government is looking increasingly remote. According to recent figures, Granic's opponent, alliance candidate Drazen Budisa, now looks most likely to be elected as Tudjman's successor.

EU assistance to south-eastern Europe 1991-99 (Allocations in millions of euro)

*EIB = European Investment Bank
**EBRD = European Bank for Reconstruction and Development