Consensus under threat as Austria goes to polls

Date: 14/12/1995

IN the last century of European history, no country has had to reinvent itself as often and as radically as Austria.

The country's most elderly citizens were born in the twilight years of a monarchy ranking as a world power, the culturally-thriving centre of a giant multinational state encompassing half of Eastern Europe.

The splendour was not to last. Its defeat at the end of World War One forced Austria into 40 years of turmoil and ceaseless political change.

Without ever having time to adapt, Austrians had to cope with the downfall of the Hapsburg dynasty, the loss of a huge empire, a new republic which soon decayed into authoritarianism and the Anschluss to Hitler's Germany. This disastrous period in the nation's history ended with war, liberation and a decade of occupation.

Since recovering its autonomy in 1955, this small country of fewer than eight million people has matured into one of Europe's most successful democracies.

Initially driven by a desperate need for stability, post-war Austria created and sustains an expensive welfare state while managing to keep both inflation and employment enviably low. Government has consistently been entrusted to moderate Socialists or centrist Christian Democrats, sometimes placidly working in tandem.

To balance the sensation of living dangerously on the front-line of Cold War Europe, Austrians took refuge in a policy of neutrality which, albeit initially imposed by Moscow, soon became firmly entrenched in the nation's identity.

If one is to believe the long-serving Chancellor Franz Vranitzky, this Sunday's (17 December) parliamentary elections might well put an end to this remarkable consensus.

The fault, argues the Socialist chancellor, lies with his Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schüssel, the ebullient leader of the Christian Democrat ÖVP. Opponents say that Schüssel, driven by mere personal ambition, has wantonly broken up the successful government coalition over a minor budgetary squabble.

Taking a risk with democracy, the Christian Democrats, they say, have irresponsibly played into the hands of the charismatic leader of the right-wing opposition, Jörg Haider.

In the eyes of his detractors, the youthful and telegenic leader of the FPÖ - now a Liberal party only in name - has become a living reminder of all that is wrong in Austrian history.

In the mind of his mostly lower-income voters, Haider excitingly embodies the need for change. Yet the vocabulary with which the quick-witted populist attacks what he calls an ossified and corrupt political establishment often smacks dangerously of 1930s fascist rhetoric. Nazi-hunter Simon Wiesenthal said in a recent interview that Haider, himself born of Nazi parents, was “still looking for positive elements in national-socialism”.

A domestic and international uproar followed Haider's perhaps most provocative utterance, when he openly praised the Third Reich's employment policy.

All this, the Social Democrats charge, the moderate Schüssel is choosing to ignore. Refusing to rule out a coalition with Haider, the foreign minister has provoked the election to propel himself into the chancellorship.

For this, he has to unseat the SPÖ from its traditional leading position.

So far, polls refuse to credit the ÖVP with the clear relative majority Schüssel is staking his political fortunes on. For the bow-tie wearing Conservative, the risk is huge.

Should the electorate refuse to hand the ÖVP the victory it is fighting for, the Christian Democrats would have to choose between two unpalatable alternatives: a humiliating continuation of their junior partnership with the SPÖ or some sort of arrangement with Haider, which some observers say would cause the party to split.

The only way out of such a dilemma would be to tolerate a minority Vranitzky government, an equally unpleasant prospect for the ÖVP's ministerial hopefuls.

While Vranitzky's or Schüssel's careers might not survive the humiliation of defeat, many observers, pointing to the lack of a credible alternative, still expect the present two-party coalition to be somehow renewed after this weekend's vote.

But even without a political earthquake shaking up the government, they say, the country will not remain its customary successful self without some drastic political reform. Once again, it is the world around that is forcing Austria to change. Practically overnight, the collapse of the Soviet bloc has removed the country from the periphery of political geography to a pivotal location right in the middle of reunited Europe.

The cultural and political heritage Austria shares with the countries generally considered to be the first in line for EU enlargement - Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and possibly Slovenia - is unparalleled in any other EU country.

A walk through the streets of Vienna following a stroll through Budapest or Prague, a glance at the telephone book with its columns and columns of East European names, should be enough to convince anyone that the Iron Curtain across the old Hapsburg empire was a divide as artificial as the barbed wire cutting Germany in two.

From an insulated outpost of the free world, Austria has become a crucial broker between the smug western and the struggling eastern half of the continent.

While most EU countries think of their future eastern partners as an abstract reality, Austrians are experiencing daily the enormous pressure from thousands of impoverished neighbours yearning to share western security and wealth.

Tough restrictions on immigration and travel go down well with the large number of voters who feel threatened by the flood of legal and illegal, permanent or temporary migrants, some of whom resort to violence or crime to get a slice of the capitalist cake.

As is the case in Germany, a swift integration of its eastern neighbours into the EU is of vital concern to an Austria that cannot afford not to participate actively in setting the timetable and the agenda for speedy enlargement. A dormant or maverick foreign policy in the shadow of the big powers is no longer an option for a country suddenly exposed to a maelstrom of political uncertainty and economic instability.

Economically, the competitive potential of its low-cost eastern neighbours is a major challenge for Austria's industrial and service sectors, which already have to deal with the sometimes disruptive consequences of full membership of the European Union.

While two-thirds of Austrians said yes to EU membership in last year's referendum, the Union's popularity has slumped since the country joined on 1 January this year, largely because the public's high expectations of dramatic and immediate benefits from membership - which the politicians who campaigned for a 'Yes' vote last year encouraged - have been disappointed.

Food prices have not come down as fast as many predicted they would and the economic boom which membership appeared to promise has not yet materialised.

Opinion polls in the months since Austria became a fully-fledged member of the Union reflect this disappointment, suggesting only around 40&percent; of Austrians would vote in favour of membership if asked again - although observers say the figure would rise if Austria's loyalty to the Union was actually put to the test.

The fact that Austria's political and economical interests frequently coincide with those of its big German neighbour - the country is firmly behind monetary union and long ago joined the deutschemark zone - should not lead outsiders to underestimate its well-proven capacity for resisting big country pressure.

While political mavericks such as Haider occasionally call Austria's national identity into question, most Austrians are keen to affirm their distinctness from the towering landmass north of their borders with which they (almost) share a language, a culture and a history.

If enlargement occurs successfully and soon, the future for Austria bodes rather well. The country is an ideal choice for western institutions, businesses and investors looking for a location that is close to Eastern Europe, while offering all the western amenities.

The expertise many Austrian businessmen have accumulated in dealing with their Hungarian or Slovenian neighbours, helped by an instinctive understanding of culture and mentality, will be a valuable asset once cash from EU structural funds is available to help modernise Eastern Europe's archaic infrastructures.