Baghot: Plenty of risk, not much reward

Date: 24/04/04

Tony Blair wants to settle Britain's place in Europe once and for all. He can't

FOR all the enjoyable mockery of Tony Blair's sudden discovery of the reverse gear he unwisely claimed not to have, it seems perverse to portray the decision to hold a referendum on the European constitution as a failure of prime ministerial nerve. If anything, it is further evidence that Mr Blair has become an adrenaline junkie. As if the drama of Iraq and the succession of knife-edge Commons votes needed to keep his reform agenda alive were insufficiently thrilling, Mr Blair has now persuaded himself that he must resolve, “once and for all”, Britain's place in Europe.

Given his hitherto dismissive rejection of calls for a referendum, Mr Blair's about-turn is astounding. He has consistently maintained that the draft constitution is of less moment than either the Single European Act of 1986 or the Maastricht treaty of 1992, both of which were ratified by Parliament alone. Thanks to Britain's “red lines ” - -its insistence on maintaining the power of veto over foreign and defence policy, taxation, social security and the European Union's budget - the constitution was, he claimed, nothing more than a conflation of existing treaty provisions combined with some sensible measures for making the enlarged union work more efficiently.

As Mr Blair made clear when telling MPs on April 20th that he now supported a referendum, this is what he still thinks. What he conspicuously failed to do, however, in the course of one of his worst parliamentary performances, was to explain what had so dramatically changed his mind.

The short answer appears to be the foreign secretary, Jack Straw. Mr Straw had come to believe that the refusal to countenance a referendum was turning into a serious problem. Although most Labour MPs continued to trot out the prime ministerial line about why there was no need for one, Mr Straw believed it was sapping morale in both the party and the cabinet. As one adviser put it: “They were very uncomfortable; they actually felt ashamed of the arguments they were using.”

As long as Spain and Poland were holding out over voting rights, the prospect of EU member countries reaching agreement on the constitution remained remote and there was no urgent reason to press for a change in policy. However, the election of the new Spanish government last month altered that calculation. Even though there could well be further delays, there was now a real prospect of everything being wrapped up this June. Mr Straw further realised that, given the febrile mood of Labour MPs and, more particularly, the growing bolshiness of the House of Lords, the bill to ratify the treaty was likely anyway to be amended with a clause providing for a referendum.

Mr Straw argued that, rather than be bounced into conceding a referendum, the government should seize the initiative, and thus deprive the Tories of their best tune on Europe ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. As parliamentary scrutiny and Britain's presidency of the union in the latter half of next year would make it difficult to hold a referendum much before spring 2006, promising one would help the government to keep the focus on domestic issues in the run-up to the general election. And it would allow an accommodation with Rupert Murdoch that would keep his newspapers in Labour's camp.

Both Mr Blair and the chancellor, Gordon Brown, were initially doubtful - Mr Blair because he lives in terror of Britain's predominantly Europhobic press, Mr Brown because he believes the government has handled the constitution badly. It has, he believes, been insufficiently tough in negotiation and disingenuous over the treaty's importance.

As Easter approached, Mr Straw finally won them over. Mr Brown agreed that nothing should be allowed to distract attention from his economic achievements. For his part, Mr Blair was persuaded that if he really wanted to dispel what he sees as the fog of myth and distortion which in Britain shrouds all discussion of Europe, this might be his only opportunity as prime minister. A referendum on the constitution would be a proxy for the indefinitely postponed showdown over the euro.

With the referendum issue thus parked, the prime minister is itching to expose the consequences of the “no” vote the Tories will be campaigning for. Michael Howard's superficially attractive vision of a multi-speed Europe may yet come to pass as the union of 25 evolves. But the Conservative leader will have to explain what effect a retreat to Europe's periphery might have on Britain's status and influence in the world.

The wisdom of Enoch

It is still a desperate gamble that Mr Blair has embarked on. A YouGov poll in the Sun indicated just how desperate. Only 16% said they would vote in favour of the constitution, while 53% would vote against. The only scrap of comfort for the prime minister came from responses to another question: by 60% to 18%, people thought it was not true that “Britain will still be able to keep control of its taxes, defence, criminal justice and foreign policy if a new European constitution does come into force.” If Mr Blair can convince voters that his red lines really are inviolable, he might be in with a chance. But that depends on how much they trust Mr Blair - these days, not much.

Mr Blair retains an almost mystic faith in his powers of persuasion, touchingly undimmed by recent experience and the cynicism he now provokes. He is determined to end what he calls Britain's historic ambivalence towards Europe. He is looking, in effect, for some kind of closure before he quits the scene.

It's a poignant illustration of Enoch Powell's observation that all political careers end in failure. Not, in this instance, because it is impossible for Mr Blair to win a vote on the constitution, but because no referendum - a mere snapshot of momentary opinion - can deliver what Mr Blair yearns for.

Commentary feature. Author says UK Prime Minister Tony Blair wants to settle Britain's place in Europe once and for all. However, he will not be able to.

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