French elections: More government blues

A bad result for Jacques Chirac's governing party

ON ELECTION night, the prime minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, swiftly issued a communique, congratulating the victors. The opposition Socialists, who took 29% of the vote? No: France's football team, for its last-minute win over England. Mr Raffarin's effort to reflect sporting glory made a blunt statement about French indifference to Euro-elections, next to the serious business of Euro-sport.

With a turnout of only 43%, the winner in France, as elsewhere, was apathy. Neither the Socialists nor the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) made Europe a central campaign issue. The Socialists, who spent most time debating homosexual marriage, said it was too soon to comment on the draft EU constitution. President Jacques Chirac said it was too soon to comment on whether to hold a referendum. Since neither party raised the stakes on Europe, most voters stayed at home.

Those who did vote delivered a “mid-term” sanction to the UMP, which managed just 16%. Although this was up on its humiliating 13% in 1999, it was still appalling. Even Jean-Marie Le Pen, the far-right National Front leader, did better in the first round of the 2002 presidential election. The Socialists pulled off their best European election result ever, trouncing the UMP by 13 points. The combined parties of the left - Socialists, Greens and Communists - beat the combined right - UMP, UDF and two Eurosceptic splinter parties - by 43% to 37%. The only reason this did not reverberate more is that it largely repeated March's regional elections, when the left swept 20 of the 22 regions.

Three big lessons stand out. First, Mr Chirac's attempt to build an umbrella party of the right has collapsed. Originally called, with touching candour, the Union for the Presidential Majority, the UMP was created in 2002 as Mr Chirac's electoral machine. It absorbed his Rally for the Republic, Liberal Democracy, and some of the centrist UDF. But Franois Bayrou, the pro-European UDF leader who has presidential ambitions for 2007, refused to join in, splitting the right. The handy 12% Mr Bayrou's party notched up in the Euro-elections will stiffen his resolve.

Second, French politics remain highly unsettled. Six months ago, the Socialists were still in disarray after their shock 2002 defeat by Mr Le Pen. The mainstream left was weakened by the rise of the hard left. And the right looked smugly united. Today, the centre-right is reeling. The UMP leader, Alain Juppe, is to stand down next month after being convicted in January of political corruption. The succession will be fiercely fought between Nicolas Sarkozy, the ambitious finance minister, and Mr Chirac's camp, eager to keep Mr Sarkozy down. The Socialists, flush with victory, look newly electable. Even the National Front has retreated, scoring just 10%. In short, the mainstream parties have recovered at the expense of the extremes, but the balance has tilted leftwards.

Third, the government's credibility has been further dented. Mr Chirac this week backed his prime minister, to jeers from the left about his deafness to the electorate. Mr Raffarin insisted that reforms would continue. To his relief, there are no more elections until 2007. Yet UMP deputies are growing restless. Over 200 turned up for lunch this week with Mr Sarkozy, showing symbolic support. Therein lies Mr Chirac's headache. Mr Sarkozy is the only centre-right leader whose popularity endures. Mr Chirac can refuse his rival the prime ministership. But he may not stop him taking control of the party.

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