European Parliament elections: Spoilers

The damage that the UKIP could do to the Tories

THE government's abrupt about-face over holding a referendum on the European constitution may have denied the Tories their best tune in the run-up to next month's European Parliament elections, but it also appears to have had the unintended consequence of giving a big boost to the UK Independence Party.

A YouGov survey in the Daily Telegraph this week put UKIP, which advocates Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, at 14%, only four points behind the Liberal Democrats. When the strength of voting intention was factored in, the positions were reversed, with UKIP steaming into third place at 18%. The surge in support reflects the publicity the tiny party has received since the referendum decision was announced a few weeks ago.

Its previously-ignored leader, a former Conservative junior minister, Roger Knapman, who brandishes a well-thumbed copy of the draft constitution wherever he goes, has become a “must-have” on every popular news and current affairs show. The party has also managed to recruit a quasi-celebrity candidate in the form of Robert Kilroy-Silk, Britain's unconvincing answer to Oprah Winfrey until fired by the BBC for airing his anti-Arab prejudices. Joan Collins, a well-preserved actress, is also a supporter. Other UKIP luminaries are few and far between, although the party is proud to include on its list of candidates John Browne, a one-time Tory MP dumped by his local party following his suspension from the Commons for serially failing to declare business interests.

If UKIP were to do anything like as well in the vote on June 10th as the poll suggests, it would send shockwaves through all three main parties. Although the Lib Dems will do much better in the local government elections held on the same day, to be relegated into third place by a fringe outfit like UKIP would be a humiliation that would trigger more disquiet about Charles Kennedy's leadership. For the government, it would be a jolting reminder of how tough it will be to avoid a highly unwelcome “no” vote in the referendum.

But UKIP success on such a scale would confront the Tories with a horrible dilemma. Despite the government's efforts, the Conservative leader, Michael Howard, has managed to avoid being painted as a Euro-obsessive driven by a hidden agenda to quit the EU. Whatever the practical difficulties, the multi-speed Europe he espouses strikes many as quite sensible. The party's manifesto for the European Parliament elections sticks to the usual bromides about reforming the common agricultural policy and cutting red tape. The intention is not to frighten the horses.

But in trying to head off Labour's charges that he is a swivel-eyed extremist, Mr Howard has opened up a space for UKIP, which has no such inhibitions. And with recent opinion polls indicating that more than a third of voters would like to leave the European Union, it is potentially quite a large space - much too large to ignore, according to unrepentant old Thatcherites, such as Lord Tebbit. Mr Howard would probably lose little sleep even if the UKIP doubled its European Parliament seats from the three they won in 1999. However, he would fear that the popular momentum and financial backing UKIP might gain from such a result would allow it to put up a much more effective fight at the general election.

Under the first-past-the-post system, UKIP won't send any MPs to Westminster and it will do well to get more than 3% of the vote - twice what it achieved in 2001. But a strong UKIP showing could scupper the chances of Tory candidates in a few crucial marginal constituencies. In other words, in a close race, Mr Knapman could do for Mr Howard what Ralph Nader did for Al Gore four years ago.

Feature looks at the damage that the anti-EU UK Independence Party could do to the Conservative Party in the European elections.

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