Spain’s conservative leadership: A new helmsman boards the ship

Date: 06/09/03

Spain's prime minister has chosen a successor. Who is the new man - and will he make a difference?

WHEN José María Aznar and his conservative government were elected in 1996 after 13 years of Socialist rule, he promised to make Spanish politics boring - and, to the satisfaction of many (perhaps most) Spaniards, he has probably done so. With his often prickly and rather authoritarian manner, Mr Aznar has run a tight ship and steered Spain with efficiency in broadly the right direction. Under the rule of his People's Party (PP), the country has prospered. The economy has grown by an average of 3.6% a year in the past seven years. Unemployment has halved from 22% in 1996 to 11% today. Spain's is one of the sturdiest economies in the euro zone. The country has gained in stature on the global and European stage.

Mr Aznar, a former tax inspector, has always come across as pretty straight. True to his word, he now looks sure to bow out after the coming general election, expected in March. The party's ruling council, plainly at Mr Aznar's behest, has now picked Mariano Rajoy, the senior of the government's two deputy prime ministers, to lead the party into battle as candidate to be the next prime minister. With opinion polls putting the PP some six percentage points ahead of the Socialists, Mr Rajoy has at least a fair chance of getting the job.

If he does land it, will he change Spain? On the face of things, not much. He is very much in Mr Aznar's mould, albeit with a jollier, more affable touch. Aged 48, he has been in politics all his life. He is tough, loyal, dependable and articulate. Trained as a public notary, he hails from a prominent political family in Galicia. He was a youthful member of the People's Alliance, the PP's forerunner that was born more directly in the stable of General Franco. In his 20s, Mr Rajoy was a member of Galicia's regional assembly. Moving into the national arena, he has served as minister for culture, education and the interior. He certainly knows the ropes.

More recently, as deputy prime minister in charge of presenting the government's face to the public, he doughtily defended its poor performance over such things as the oil-spill when a tanker sank last year off the coast of Galicia. And he coolly took the flak, from right as well as left, over Spain's pro-American stand in the Iraq war, which was hugely unpopular at home. Not surprisingly, José Luis Zapatero, leader of the Socialist opposition, says he is merely Mr Aznar's yes-man.

If so, not for much longer. For one thing, Mr Aznar promises that he will not pull the strings from behind - and he tends to keep such promises. Mr Rajoy is expected shortly to drop his government posts and take over the running of the party and its policy. Mr Aznar will continue to run the government, but, come the election, he will withdraw entirely from Spanish politics. “From today the PP's leader is called Mariano Rajoy,” said Mr Aznar on August 29th. “There will be no shared leadership.”

For another thing, Mr Rajoy is likely to be subtler in application and more flexible in substance, as well as lighter in style, than his predecessor. This could soften the perennial rows between the central government in Madrid and Spain's 17 regional administrations, especially those in the Basque country and Catalonia. Non-violent Catalan and Basque nationalists have welcomed the choice of Mr Rajoy to lead the PP. The Socialists, too, say they hope that the clima de crispacin, the mood of bad blood between the two main parties, will end under the new man. “Spain can no longer bear the tension and constant adversarial politics of vilification that we have suffered during the seven-and-a-half years of Aznar's PP government,” pleads a left-leaning newspaper, El País.

Like Mr Aznar, Mr Rajoy will give no quarter to Basque terrorists. But he may approach the politics differently. Mr Aznar fell out badly with the non-violent Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), making any settlement of the tricky Basque problem much harder. Later this month, the PNV will present its latest plan for further devolution and will again demand a referendum on what it calls self-determination. Mr Aznar's response is likely to be virulently hostile. Mr Rajoy may, if only in tone, seek to distance himself a shade from his old master's voice.

In economics, Mr Rajoy is likely to copy Mr Aznar closely. He may be less liberal than his chief rival for the PP succession, Rodrigo Rato, the finance minister. Spain must still liberalise its energy and finance sectors and loosen its labour market. But Mr Rajoy may well be cautious, like Mr Aznar before him. And he is unlikely to dare to get far ahead of public opinion.

New policies, then? Unlikely. A new mood? Maybe. That sounds like no big change. But in a country where emotions in politics can fast run high, a new style at the top could make quite a difference.

Mariano Rajoy has been chosen as Spanish Prime Minister Aznar's successor. Who is the new man? Will he make a difference?