Iran, the EU and America. Pragmatism, the flavour of the day

Date: 08/02/03

Are the reformists being outflanked, even on relations with America?

DURING a three-day trip to Iran this week, Chris Patten, the EU's commissioner for external relations, hobnobbed with the reformists of President Muhammad Khatami's movement - and also with the conservatives who have all but derailed the movement. His ecumenism may be sensible. Not since Mr Khatami was elected six years ago have the reformists' eclipse, and the resurgence of their rivals, seemed so inescapable.

Few people now believe that Mr Khatami can deliver on his seductive promise to reconcile Islamic values with democratic ones. But the EU's defence, when charged by America with helping to legitimise a dishonourable regime, is that its engagement with Iran helps the reformists to fulfil their pledges. As Mr Khatami shrinks in stature, that defence sounds hollow.

To date, the EU's main accomplishment has been to persuade Iran's top judge to introduce a moratorium - though not an outright ban - on the stoning to death of adulteresses. Otherwise, nobody detects the improvement in human rights that the EU regards as prerequisite to the trade and co-operation agreement that it is negotiating with Iran. Mr Patten was impressed by Mr Khatami's eloquence and moderation, but came away empty-handed. He did not, for instance, get the assurances he was seeking that the Iranians would accept more stringent monitoring of their controversial nuclear-power programme.

His failure delights the more pragmatic conservatives, who are now determined to prove that America's bellicosity can be diffused, and friendship with Europe retained, only when they themselves are in control. Since many reformist candidates, at the parliamentary election in 2004 and the presidential one in 2005, will be disqualified, the conservatives wait for power to drop into their laps. Then, with the support of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, all obstacles, they say, will evaporate.

Their charm offensive has begun. European ambassadors in Tehran are being courted by Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister and an adviser to Mr Khamenei. Iran's ambassador to the UN is said to be acting at the behest of conservatives in his attempts to woo senior American congressmen. In addition, there are rumours of clandestine assignations between Iranian conservatives and American officials, to plan some form of co-operation during and after a war on Iraq. In return for Iran's promise to return American pilots downed over its territory, and, sotto voce, to open its borders to expected Iraqi refugees, America has reassured Iran that it will not use Iraq as a launch-pad to mount an attack on the Islamic republic.

Reformists suspect that these efforts are being masterminded by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a quintessential pragmatic conservative, and Mr Khatami's predecessor as president. Mr Rafsanjani, who heads a mediating body, was Mr Patten's most controversial choice as an interlocutor. To reformists, he represents the bad old days, and the EU has no business conferring respectability on him. They fear that he intends to assume a guiding role once Mr Khatami has gone - and will use his cunning to build bridges with America.

Mr Khamenei has repeatedly vetoed reformist efforts to do just that. Why should he grant permission to Mr Rafsanjani? The answer lies in the recent enfeeblement of Iran's theocratic government, and the virulence of George Bush's aversion to it. In his recent state-of-the-union address, America's president noted that Iran represses its people, pursues weapons of mass destruction and supports terror. If they can calm Mr Bush, say conservatives, they might win the regime a reprieve.

Can the pragmatists pull off their plan? Sceptics point to the long-standing distrust between Mr Khamenei and Mr Rafsanjani, to the ideological opposition that would come from unpragmatic hardliners, and to the loathing that Iranian conservatives arouse in Washington. To make it work, says one western ambassador, the Iranians would have to bring a lot to the table. Thanks to the assiduous Europeans, they know what is required of them.